The result of the local elections in Turkey is a debacle for President Erdogan. His AKP is weakening, especially in the metropolises. Now he wants to “correct mistakes.” A challenger could emerge in Istanbul.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has admitted the defeat of his AKP party in local elections. He said that people had “lost altitude” throughout Turkey. “Unfortunately, nine months after our victory in the elections on May 28, we were unable to achieve the desired result in the local elections,” Erdogan said.
The people have sent the AKP a message that they will analyze with courageous self-criticism. “We will correct our mistakes and eliminate our shortcomings,” he promised. However, he left it open what changes he wanted to make within his party or in politics. “This is not the end for us, but a turning point,” said the head of state.
The Islamic-conservative AKP became only the second strongest force for the first time since its founding in 2002. According to the electoral authority, she won 24 of the 81 mayoral offices and received 35.5 percent of the vote nationwide.
Opposition CHP is election winner
The opposition CHP emerged as the election winner. The surprising outcome of the election had already become apparent during the night. The center-left party has won 35 mayoral positions nationwide, according to preliminary results, said the head of the electoral authority, Ahmet Yener. The CHP received 37.7 percent of the vote. An official final result is still pending. The CHP celebrated successes especially in large cities such as Istanbul and Ankara.
The vote was seen as a barometer of Erdogan’s popularity as he sought to regain control of key urban areas that his AKP lost to the opposition in elections five years ago. The CHP’s victory in Ankara and Istanbul had shattered Erdogan’s aura of invincibility.
Bad Economic Location reason for AKP election debacle
This year’s local elections took place against a backdrop of high inflation, which stood at 67 percent in February. The director of the Istanbul-based think tank Edam, Sinan Ülgen, said voters wanted to punish the AKP for the economic malaise. Skyrocketing inflation has meant that many Turkish households can no longer afford basic goods. AKP supporters stayed at home or voted for other parties.
Also ARD correspondent Katharina Willinger sees the poor economic situation as one of the main reasons for the AKP’s poor performance. The situation has worsened further since last year’s presidential election: “The pensioners, a strong group of voters, have been complaining for a long time that they can hardly carry on with their everyday lives and have to start working again at the age of 70. We definitely see a protest electorate there. “
The AKP also had to deal with new competition: the religious-conservative New Welfare Party Yeniden Refah Party was courting conservative voters who were dissatisfied with Erdogan’s economic policies. She received 6.2 percent of the vote nationwide and won two mayoral positions.
AKP also loses in the metropolis of Istanbul
Istanbul, with its 16 million inhabitants, was particularly important for Erdogan. He was born and raised there and was once mayor himself. Istanbul’s current mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, is popular with the people and is considered a possible challenger to Erdogan in the 2028 presidential election.
According to Anadolu, the CHP politician is more than eleven percentage points ahead of his AKP challenger Murat Kurum in Istanbul. “According to the data we received, it seems that our citizens’ trust in us, their belief in us, has paid off,” Imamoglu said. Polls before the election had predicted a close race.
“He can appeal to all segments of the opposition, whether Turkish, Kurdish, Sunni, Alevi, young or older voters,” said Berk Esen, a political scientist at Sabanci University in Istanbul. The mayor of Istanbul also enjoys “a fairly high level of support in the various regions of the country,” the expert added.
The CHP also gained votes in areas considered AKP strongholds. In Ankara, Mayor Mansur Yavas of the CHP was almost 29 percentage points ahead of his challenger. “The voters have decided in favor of a new political order in Turkey,” said CHP leader Özgür Özel to cheering supporters. “Today voters decided to change the 22-year-old picture in Turkey and open the door to a new political climate in our country.”
Pro-Kurdish DEM dominates in the southeast
In the southeast of the country, the pro-Kurdish DEM won in ten provinces. However, it is questionable whether their victorious candidates will be able to take office. In the past, the AKP has deposed elected pro-Kurdish mayors amid accusations that they had ties to Kurdish terrorists.
Voter turnout was lower than in previous local votes: it was between 78.1 and 80.7 percent, said the head of the electoral authority. In 2019, according to Anadolu, around 84 percent of eligible voters cast their votes in the local elections.