The “Green Deal” of the EU Commission last week gave some observers once again cause for clear criticism: All the electric cars that are necessary to achieve the stricter carbon dioxide limits would have the opposite effect, or at least they would The ecological impact is clearly overestimated: The production of batteries requires enormous energy, especially when drying the coated cell foils. And then there is the power mix: so much electricity still comes from coal and gas power plants.
An extensive analysis by the non-profit organization ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation) is devoted to precisely these questions – and comes to a clear result: Battery cars are already significantly more climate-friendly than gasoline and diesel vehicles. Calculated from battery cell production to decommissioning, emissions in the compact class would be 66 to 69 percent lower than for comparable new combustion engines. Due to the steadily improving electricity mix in Europe – i.e. the increase in sustainably generated energy from wind and sun, for example – this “emission advantage” will improve to around 74 to 77 percent in 2030, according to the ICCT experts, who deal with research and Employing analyzes in the field of transport. If an electric car were to run entirely on electricity from renewable energies, its CO₂ balance would be up to 81 percent lower than that of a small petrol car when it was shut down.
Hybrid vehicles could help reduce greenhouse gases, but the advantage is only 20 percent fewer emissions. Natural gas vehicles, on the other hand, have little advantage, as does the addition of biofuels.
In view of the goal of so-called climate neutrality in Europe in 2050 and an assumed vehicle service life of 18 years, the ICCT now recommends that new registrations of combustion engines expire by 2035 at the latest. This advice is roughly in line with the Commission’s plans, which, however, have not yet been finalized. The EU Commission headed by President Ursula von der Leyen wants to reduce CO₂ emissions directly on the vehicle – i.e. fuel consumption – by 55 percent by 2030. From 2035 onwards, only emission-free vehicles are to be registered.
The auto industry, however, is concerned about whether the charging networks are efficient enough everywhere on the continent and points to the profound consequences for factories and jobs. However, various car manufacturers have already adjusted to these targets, such as Stellantis (Opel, Citroen, Peugeot, Fiat), the VW Group and Volvo. Daimler is also likely to declare its willingness to follow this schedule this week.
The ICCT surveys have a certain weight. This think tank is supported by the EU Commission and the Federal Environment Agency and was instrumental in uncovering the diesel scandal at Volkswagen in 2015. For the current analysis, the ICCT researchers evaluated the available literature and current production data. The mass of data provides a better picture than individual studies on the life cycle carbon footprint of electric cars and combustion engines, which often lead to very contradicting results, although this is also due to methodological deficiencies. For a clear comparison between combustion engines and electric vehicles, for example, the energy consumption for the production of both types of car including the battery of the electric vehicle must be included, as well as the expenses for battery recycling or the production of gasoline or diesel.
In addition, the assumptions about the composition of the electricity used must be realistic, both for the production of the battery and for the operation of the electric car; here too, the numbers often differ significantly. Just recently, for example, an international research group led by Thomas Koch from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) advertised the diesel engine with an open letter to Brussels and a position paper, arguing that the additional demand from electric cars makes the entire electricity production dirtier – which experts immediately did debilitated.
All aspects of the life cycle considered
The current ICCT analysis looks at all aspects of the life cycle of the various vehicle types – from vehicle and battery production to fuel or electricity production to recycling. The emissions from battery production are set to be significantly lower than in previous studies, which the researchers justify with a more precise calculation model based on industrial data. Because of the great uncertainty, savings through battery recycling were not included. In contrast, emissions from the construction of additional wind turbines and solar parks are included.
The ICCT only looked at incinerators that run on synthetic fuels produced from hydrogen in passing, because such fuels are unlikely to be available on a large scale in the foreseeable future. The researchers estimate, however, that the electricity consumption per kilometer is likely to be around six times as high as that of a purely electric car and twice as high as that of a fuel cell car that runs on green hydrogen.