Week 16 N.F.L. Playoff Picture: A Team-by-Team Guide

The Dolphins are atop the A.F.C. East and have a clear, if challenging, path to the top seed in the A.F.C., which would mean a bye week and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That No. 1 seed would almost certainly require finishing the season with a 13-4 record, a challenging prospect given the opponents remaining on the schedule: the N.F.C.-leading Cowboys (10-4), the A.F.C.-leading Ravens (11-3) and the surging Bills (8-6), who may be playing for a berth of their own in Week 18.

The Dolphins would clinch the division with a win against the Bills, regardless of what happens in their other two games. A win in any game clinches a playoff berth, and even three losses would probably put the Dolphins in the playoffs as a wild-card team.

Coming off a pair of impressive wins against the Chiefs and Cowboys, the Bills are back in the playoff hunt, with a plausible path to the playoffs and even to the A.F.C. East division title.

Good news for the Bills: They may need to win only two of their next three games to make the playoffs, and only one of the opponents they’ll face has a winning record.

Bad news: One of these games is against the division-leading Dolphins (10-4) at Miami in Week 18.

The Ravens have the best record in the A.F.C. and are the favorites to take the No. 1 seed, which comes with a bye week and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They have clinched a playoff berth.

Unfortunately, their remaining schedule includes games against two of the best teams in the N.F.L. They face the 49ers (11-4), then host the Dolphins (10-4) and Steelers (7-7).

The Browns are in a very strong position for a postseason berth. Just one win in their next three games will almost certainly be enough to put them in the playoffs, and one of their games is against the lowly Jets (5-9).

Realistically, the Browns are headed for the postseason with a wild-card berth, most likely as the No. 5 seed, visiting the No. 4 seed (probably the Jaguars, Texans or Colts) in the first round.

The Bengals are on the fringe, currently in third in their division with three tough matchups to conclude the season. They are essentially assured a spot in the postseason if they win all three. More likely, they will need to win at least two and hope for some luck, with losses from their wild-card competition — especially the Bills, Browns and Steelers.

Things are not looking good for the Steelers. They have lost three in a row and may turn to their third starting quarterback of the season, Mason Rudolph, in Week 16. They are in last place in the A.F.C. North, behind three teams who may all make the playoffs.

Winning their remaining games would make a playoff berth more likely than not; no other outcome gives them much of a chance.

The Jaguars are on top of the A.F.C. South, but they share their record (8-6) with two other members of their division, the Colts and the Texans. Their most important game is their last, in Week 18, against the Titans.

The Colts would make the playoffs by winning their remaining games, all against eminently beatable opponents. They face only one team with a winning record — the Texans, who share the Colts’ 8-6 record (and a nearly identical path to the postseason).

That matchup with the Texans, in Week 18, is the most important of the three for the Colts. As long as the Colts win that, they can probably afford a loss to the Falcons in Week 16 or to the Raiders in Week 17.

The Texans share the same record — and face the same path, more or less — as two other teams in the A.F.C. South: the Jaguars and the Colts. But they are currently third in the division (thanks to tiebreakers) and have the slimmest chance at a playoff berth of the three.

Three wins would secure a playoff berth and probably the division title. The reality is that as long as the Texans win their final matchup, they could probably afford a loss in Week 16 or Week 17. But they will probably need to win two of the three.

The Chiefs are atop the A.F.C. West with a clear path to their eighth consecutive division title. A win in Week 16, against the Raiders, would clinch the division and a playoff berth.

A bye week and the No. 1 seed remains possible but unlikely. It would require, among other things, at least two Ravens losses.

It is tempting to declare the Broncos’ postseason hopes hopeless: They are 7-7, two games behind the division-leading Chiefs with three teams ahead of them for the last wild-card spot.

But the Broncos have won six of their last eight games (never mind last week’s blowout loss to the Lions) and face three opponents with losing records to finish the season. They will probably need to win them all for a realistic chance at a wild-card berth.

A loss eliminates the Raiders. They face the division-leading Chiefs next.

The Cowboys are in the playoffs and still have an eye on the N.F.C. East title. Their best realistic hope is to win the division, but their path is more challenging than it looks.

To make matters worse, the Cowboys face two likely playoff teams — the Dolphins (10-4) and Lions (10-4) — in their next two games, while the Eagles, who share the Cowboys’ record (10-4), play three teams with losing records.

A wild-card berth would probably give the Cowboys the No. 5 seed; they would most likely visit the winner of the lowly N.F.C. South — the Bucs, Saints or Falcons.

The Eagles have the same record as the (currently) division-leading Cowboys (10-4). Like the Cowboys, they have clinched a playoff berth. But in almost every way, the Eagles’ path to the division title is easier.

The Eagles play three teams with losing records to finish the season, while the Cowboys face two likely playoff teams.

If the Eagles do win the division, they would probably be the No. 2 seed, hosting the No. 7 seed in the first round.

A bye week remains a slim possibility, requiring the 49ers to have a poor finish.

The Giants are not eliminated — yet. But they probably soon will be. They visit the Eagles (10-4) next.

The Lions are a win away from their first division title in 30 years, and even three consecutive losses will almost certainly send them to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

They play the Vikings — a team on their fourth starting quarterback, having lost three of their last four games — twice in the next three weeks.

The Lions seem most likely to end the season with the No. 3 seed in the N.F.C., hosting the No. 6 seed in the first round of the playoffs.

The Vikings are in surprisingly good shape considering their 7-7 record. They face three N.F.C. North opponents in the next three weeks, including the Lions (10-4) twice. Winning two of those three should be enough for a wild-card berth.

Believe it or not, because they face the Lions twice, victories by the Vikings in their remaining games (unlikely as it may be) could put them in position to take the division.

Like the Vikings, the Packers have a clearer path to the playoffs than their record might suggest. They probably need to win their remaining games, but a look at their schedule — Panthers (2-12), at Vikings (7-7), Bears (5-9) — makes it seem downright plausible. Even two wins in those three games would give the Packers a fighting chance, especially if one of those wins is against the Vikings.

The Bears need to win their remaining games to have even a slim chance at the postseason.

The N.F.C. South is wide open, with two seven-win teams and one six-win team vying for the division title.

Right now, the Bucs are in the strongest position of the three. Their Week 17 game, against the Saints, is the most important of their remaining three. A win there would very likely put them on a path to win the division, even if they lose their other two games.

The Saints have a narrow path to the playoffs after their loss to the Rams on Thursday night.

To keep things simple: If they win their final two games, the Saints will most likely be in the playoffs. If they lose one, they almost certainly will not.

The Falcons are 6-8, but, thanks to the weakness of their division, still have a path to the postseason. They will probably need to win their remaining games, starting with a Week 16 matchup against the Colts (8-6).

The 49ers hold the best record in the N.F.C. and have already clinched the N.F.C. West. They can do no worse than the No. 3 seed. They host the Ravens (11-3) on Monday night in what could certainly be a preview of this year’s Super Bowl.

With a playoff berth in hand, a bye week is what 49ers fans should root for. Two wins — any two — in their next three games will guarantee it. Even one would suffice with some help. For good measure, 49ers fans should root against the Cowboys and Eagles.

The Rams’ victory over the Saints on Thursday night puts them on very solid footing for a postseason berth. One win in their next two games will almost certainly be enough.

The Rams face the Giants (5-9) next. Any Vikings, Seahawks or Packers loss is especially welcome for the Rams.

The Rams’ win on Thursday night over the Saints complicates things for the Seahawks. Yes, they will almost certainly be in the playoffs if they win their next three games, and their schedule is relatively favorable. Realistically, two wins in three games and a 9-8 record should make a wild-card berth more likely than not — but just barely. Their fate may well be decided in the last week of the season.