Status: 04.03.2022 11:05 a.m
Germany’s exports have already fallen significantly at the beginning of the year. Bucking the trend, trade with Russia of all things increased significantly in January. But now, as a result of the war and sanctions, there are signs of a slump.
Even before the start of the Ukraine war, German exports in January fell by 2.8 percent compared to December, after calendar and seasonal adjustments. German foreign trade with Russia, on the other hand, grew strongly in January compared to December: the value of exports to Russia rose by 14.4 percent to 2.6 billion euros, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office. Imports even increased by 18.9 percent to 3.9 billion euros. The reason may be the rise in the price of gas and oil.
Because of the Western sanctions, however, experts expect serious slumps in foreign trade with Russia in the coming months. “Companies with a strong focus on Russia are currently getting under the wheels,” said Alexander Krüger, chief economist at the private bank Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe. “At the same time, high oil and gas prices are fueling imports.”
The war in Ukraine and the imposed sanctions will also have noticeable consequences for the development of German foreign trade as a whole. The Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) declared that the previously forecast export growth of six percent for 2022 could no longer be achieved. “The decline at the beginning of the year shows how difficult the environment will be for the German export economy in 2022,” said DIHK foreign trade chief Volker Treier. “Given the war in Ukraine, it’s clear that the year as a whole will be an absolutely dark one.” It could even be “that price-adjusted exports slip into negative zones,” said Treier.
decline in global trade
Even if German exports in January fell by 2.8 percent and imports by 4.2 percent compared to December, the picture is much better compared to the same month last year: In January, goods worth 116.9 billion euros were shipped abroad delivered. That was 7.5 percent more than in January 2021. Imports rose by 22.1 percent to 107.5 billion euros.
Most of the goods were delivered to EU countries, the value was 61.4 billion euros. Exports worth 55.5 billion euros went to countries outside the EU. Most exports in January went to the US, followed by China and the UK. Germany received most of its imports from China in January, their value was 13.1 billion euros.