Market report
As of: 09/30/2021 9:50 a.m.
Investors willing to buy ensure that the DAX is up again after the recent losses. However, experts do not give the all-clear, as some risks could still depress share prices.
The DAX is continuing on its recovery course, increasing by around half a percent to 15,430 points in early trading. Already on Wednesday the DAX went out of trading after the price losses on Tuesday with an increase of around 0.8 percent to 15,365 points.
However, investors shouldn’t attach too much importance to price gains, say the Helaba experts: “The DAX remains true to its long-established pattern, with rapid countermovements following downward impulses.”
The negative factors have by no means been eliminated, they emphasize: “It remains unclear how things will continue in China at Evergrande. In addition, for example, inflation developments, concerns about the further economic development and the recently significantly increasing yields play a role”, is the conclusion of the Helaba.
The experts at HSBC, who argue in terms of chart technology, speak of stabilization in view of the current situation, but they do not want to give the all-clear either. You see a striking resistance at around 15,550 points, which must first be overcome before the picture clears up.
Meanwhile, there is positive news about the shortage of materials in the construction industry; this has recently decreased slightly. In building construction, only 36.3 percent of companies reported bottlenecks, as the Munich Ifo Institute announced. In August it was 42.2 percent. In civil engineering, the share was 27.6 percent and thus 3.8 points lower.
The specifications from the USA look mixed: the US standard value index Dow Jones closed yesterday 0.3 percent higher to 34,390 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq, however, lost 0.2 percent to 14,512 points. The broad S&P 500 gained 0.2 percent to 4359 points.
The fear of an increase in key interest rates remains an important factor in the US, which is likely to limit profit opportunities for the time being. Yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also admitted that inflation would stay higher than expected for longer.
The dispute over the debt ceiling is also increasingly becoming a dominant issue in the stock markets. Without an agreement, there is a threat of a government shutdown from Friday, the closure of numerous authorities. According to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the US could default on October 18th. The unclear situation represents a significant risk for the stock exchanges, which could lead to further price distortions at any time.
Of course, the combined risks of a possible Evergrande default, stricter monetary policy and a possible shutdown in the US were also under observation in Asia. The Japanese leading index Nikkei lost 0.3 percent to 29,452 points in the morning. The broader Topix index fell 0.4 percent.
The Shanghai stock exchange, on the other hand, gained around one percent. The latest Chinese economic data for September were mixed: While high raw material prices and power outages put pressure on China’s industrial activity, the service sector expanded again after the virus outbreaks subsided. Energy-dependent values were among the winners. In view of the bottlenecks in the power supply, there were assurances from the coal industry to ensure the supply in the run-up to the winter season.
Oil prices eased slightly in early trading. In the morning, a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent cost US $ 78.41. That was 23 cents less than the day before. The price of a barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell six cents to $ 74.77.
Despite the slight discounts, oil prices are at a relatively high level. On Tuesday, the price of Brent rose to a three-year high of more than $ 80. One reason for the discounts is the recently significantly stronger US dollar. It makes crude oil, which is traded internationally in dollars, more expensive for buyers from the non-dollar area, which depresses their demand.
The euro is currently stuck near its lowest level in around 14 months. In the morning, the common currency was priced at $ 1.1605 after falling late the night before at $ 1.1589, its lowest level since July 2020. The US dollar, which is appreciating too many currencies, has been weighing on the euro and other currencies for some time. The decisive factor is the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, which is heading towards an initial moderate tightening of its extremely loose rate.
During the course of the day, investors still expect data on German consumer prices, which are currently receiving a lot of attention in view of rising inflation around the world. In August they were up 3.9 percent compared to the same month last year. The last time there was a higher value was in December 1993, when it was 4.3 percent. In the US, fresh weekly labor market data and consumer spending are published.
The Volkswagen commercial vehicle subsidiary Traton has its CEO and CFO at the door. Matthias Gründler, who took over the position of then Traton boss Andreas Renschler in mid-2020, will leave the company at the end of September, Traton announced after a board meeting. His successor will be Scania boss Christian Levin. This should lead both VW subsidiaries at the same time from October.
In the summer of 2020, Traton parted ways with Renschler, who had listed the company on the stock exchange in 2019. At that time, Traton brought Gründler back, who had been chief financial officer there until 2018. Traton CFO Christian Schulz will also leave on September 30th, as Traton announced. Schulz played a key role in organizing the IPO.
The Swedish clothing chain H&M wants to distribute a dividend for the first time since the beginning of the Corona crisis. In November, a dividend of 6.50 Swedish kronor (0.64 euros) per share should be paid out, the group announced. The proposal was possible because of a significantly increased profitability, good market conditions and a positive outlook, it was said to justify. According to its own information, the group had not distributed a dividend since spring 2019.
The lack of parts spoils the business of the motorhome manufacturer Knaus Tabbert. The company has withdrawn its previous forecasts for sales growth and margin and justified this with “increasing material shortages along the supply chain”. So far, the company had assumed strong sales growth “in the lower range of 20 to 22 percent”. Knaus Tabbert has not yet given a new forecast for the current financial year.
The US auto company General Motors is relying on its own cloud platform in the cockpit to stop Google and Apple’s advance in the auto market. Among other things, this should add new functions via software updates, announced GM. The first cars with the new platform called Ultifi are due to hit the market in 2023, both with electric drives and combustion engines.
The later functions could include starting the car via facial recognition, explained GM. Or the possibility of adapting the vehicle settings for young drivers in some situations.
Hornbach Holding has specified its target for the current financial year. The sales growth compared to the previous year should be in the upper third of the forecast of one to five percent. The adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for the current financial year should also be in the upper third of the corridor of 290 to 326 million euros. This would mean that the value would be below the record level of the previous year.