It was a few weeks ago, the election campaign was still young, and for Christian Lindner the crucial question of the federal election had actually already been resolved. “I believe that in truth the question of black or green in the Chancellery has been decided in favor of the CDU / CSU,” said the FDP leader at the beginning of his campaign tour to the tourists in the Baltic resort of Zingst. “Whether you think that’s good, whether I think it’s good, I don’t even want to discuss now. I wouldn’t vote for the CDU,” said Lindner a few laughs. That’s the way it is, he went on. It amounts to a black chancellery.
Lindner made it so simple not only in Zingst, but everywhere he went. It is only a question of whether Laschet can govern alone with the Greens or whether the FDP will be needed for a Jamaica alliance. “If you let Armin Laschet rule alone with the Greens, then I tell you: The great integrator Armin Laschet will integrate the entire Greens program into a government program,” warned Lindner. It was a message with which Lindner wanted to curb speculation about a traffic light with the SPD and the Greens. The FDP as the majority procurer of a green chancellor Annalena Baerbock was an idea that Lindner intended to thoroughly dispel.
The problem with this message has been shown by a look at the surveys for some time: Although a Chancellorship of the Green Baerbock has hardly been a likely scenario for a long time, the soaring of SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz is steadying. With 22 percent each, the Union and SPD were tied on Friday in the ZDF Politbarometer. In a Forsa survey, Scholz was even ahead for the first time. One wonders now how long Lindner can build on his repeatedly renewed “prognosis”, “that the CDU and CSU will become the strongest parliamentary group and receive the mandate to form a government”. Especially since there is no formal mandate in the German system.
Charm offensive by the SPD candidate
Lindner is dealing not only with the changed survey situation, but also with a charm offensive by the SPD candidate. In an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung Scholz tried to hit a nerve with Lindner. As expected, he criticized as “irresponsible” that the FDP had refused to join a Jamaica alliance in 2017. But the truth also includes “that the Union and the Greens had not previously tried very hard to create a real three-way alliance”. They had “ultimately negotiated with each other and only intended the FDP to play a minor role”. Scholz has thus taken over the FDP’s justification for the failure of the Jamaica negotiations one-to-one.
Lindner would probably have liked to hear something like this a few years ago. At this point in time he would prefer not to. In contrast to Baerbock, Olaf Scholz, as a possible chancellor, does not provoke all liberal defensive reflexes. This is precisely why the Social Democrats’ advances thwart Lindner’s attempt to dismiss the traffic light as a fantasy, much more so than any offers from the Greens could. This is exactly what the FDP leader cannot do for a whole host of reasons.
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Above all, Lindner would actually prefer to rule with Armin Laschet. He knows and values him as a coalition partner in North Rhine-Westphalia. That also hits the mood among most liberals. Only a few see sufficient overlap with the Social Democrats, the majority of whom are located much further to the left than Olaf Scholz. In terms of election tactics, there is also the fear of the Union’s growing traffic light campaign. Those who vote for the FDP “have to accept that in the end they will wake up at the cabinet table with Saskia Esken and Kevin Kühnert,” said CDU General Secretary Paul Ziemiak recently mirrors warned.
“It’s not about the play of colors”
As far as Laschet is concerned, Lindner is in a dilemma. He wrestles with him for votes, but has to fear too great a weakness in Laschet. Lindner’s mantra of the task of forming a government, which will go to Laschet, is already taking revenge. What if the SPD actually became the strongest force under Scholz? Could Lindner then refuse traffic light negotiations? The FDP has not yet committed itself. “It’s not about tactics, it’s not about color games,” says the election manifesto. Interestingly, it has recently been heard from the FDP that the Chancellor does not necessarily have to be the strongest party.
In any case, a strong defense against the traffic light can be felt, which also has reasons that are deeply rooted in the party’s history. When the FDP decided in favor of a social-liberal coalition in 1969, it alienated many voters and members who were anything but social-liberal at the time. This was repeated in 1982 when he switched to Union and Helmut Kohl. The FDP rules in Rhineland-Palatinate at a set of traffic lights. At the federal level, however, a center-left coalition would require some persuasive work.
At least vice-party leader Wolfang Kubicki does not consider this to be absurd from the outset. “There is no question that the person Olaf Scholz would not be an insurmountable coalition hurdle for the Free Democrats,” he told the SZ. It was “nice if Mr. Scholz at least wants to take small steps in a more sensible and pragmatic direction – different from what his comrades wanted to do up to now”. However, a traffic light alliance is “extremely unlikely, because ideas diverge widely, especially in tax policy”. The decisive factor is “what is actually in a coalition agreement”.