War in Ukraine
Now Russia is taking Kiev’s mountain fortress Chassiv Yar into its grip
Russian Pnazer in occupied Donetsk.
© Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
After Bakhmut and Avdiivka, the Russians now attack the next city. Chasiv Yar lies like a breakwater in front of the last line of defense in the east and must not fall.
The Russians have been shelling the small town for weeks Chassiv Yar, now the real attack has begun. They advanced along road 00506 and were able to establish themselves in the extreme eastern tip of the city – strictly speaking, the “Kanal” settlement is a handful of houses in front of the actual city area. At the same time they occupied a forest north of it up to the railway line.
Pincer movement around the city
Chasiv Yar is located just west of Bakhmut. The Russian attack on the city was a matter of time after Ivanivske – located right next to Bakhmut – fell. This cleared the way for a flank attack. All major ground operations in the war are based on attacking the target from three sides. And in Chassiv Yar the Russians are also preparing a bypass on both flanks. A demanding undertaking in this positional chess, because at least the upper pincer movement is threatened by the Ukrainian armed forces from a ridge with the settlements of Bohdanivka and Kalinina. And would have to be secured by the Russians.
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Breakwater in Donbass
Why is the city so important? Due to its high altitude, Chasiv Yar dominates the surrounding area and acts as a breakwater, blocking all major Russian movements on this front. If the Russians want to go further west, they must first conquer this city. The Ukrainians have been holding back the Russians here for a long time. Kiev, on the other hand, must not lose the fortress; there are no equivalent fortifications behind it. If Chasiv Yar falls, the Russians will slowly but inexorably move toward the chain of towns from Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk to Sloviansk. They are the last line of defense in Donbass and critical to the survival of free Ukraine. These cities shield the area up to the Dnieper. If Putin hacks a hole in this line, things would look very bad. Chassiv Yar is not decisive for the war; this city is also just an overture to something bigger.
The city will not fall any time soon. This is due to the geographical conditions. The entire city is bisected by a railway line and major roads. A canal flows from north to south. The smaller part of the city lies on the eastern bank. The Russians now want to encircle him. Their idea will aim to bypass the more built-up zone on both sides. And to advance north along the railway until they have gained fire control of the canal and crossings.
Can the Russians increase the pressure?
It will become clear in Chasiv Yar whether the Russian momentum runs out or whether the Russians can maintain or even increase the pressure. In addition to the superiority in artillery, glide bombs and other heavy long-range weapons are of great importance. Kiev can only sporadically use long-range weapons with warheads weighing 500 kilograms. The Russians launch well over a thousand glide bombs weighing 500 and 1,500 kilograms every month – in the future, three-ton bombs and fatal thermobaric bombs will be added.
So far, Kiev has not found a way to counter this hail of bombs. These bombs change the basic rules of trench warfare in Ukraine. Factory halls, basements, bunkers and shelters that have provided safe protection from drones and artillery cannot withstand a FAB-1500 glide bomb. Videos show their impact. A FAB-1500 causes an entire high-rise building to collapse, burying everything that was inside it. The battle for Chasiv Yar therefore begins under less favorable conditions for the defenders than the battles for Sievierodonetsk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka. This battle begins, as the one at Avdiivka ended, in a hail of heavy bombs.
Fights will set the tone for the summer
Russia does not achieve such overwhelming superiority on all sectors of the front. In drone warfare in particular, the Kremlin must concentrate its forces and thus expose other areas where the Ukrainians then have the upper hand and inflict heavy losses on the Russians with drones. But the fighting over Chassiv Yar will set the tone for the next few months. If the Ukrainians succeed in a tough defense, the Russians will lose their previous momentum as they continue to suffer losses without making any gains. However, if the Russians are successful with their glide bombs, in addition to the losses on site, this will further depress morale overall. Like the attacks on the energy supply and the city of Kharkiv. It would be proof that ground warfare is not possible under this air superiority.