Can Jair Bolsonaro be dismissed for his management of the Covid-19 epidemic? The question is on many lips in the country auriverde, as a parliamentary commission of inquiry (ICC) delivers its conclusions. Created on the initiative of opposition senators, it resulted in a 1,200-page report presented today.
The conclusions of the investigation are particularly compromising for Bolsonaro, criticized for his late reaction to the Covid-19 epidemic which he had initially qualified as “gripette”. In total, the senators will ask for his indictment for a dozen crimes, including charges of “crimes against humanity”. But for Christophe Ventura, research director at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris), “it’s a classic process”.
The opposition, in this case “the parties of the traditional right MDB and PSDB which governed before the arrival of Bolsonaro and broke with him during the health crisis”, details Christophe Ventura, surfs on the critical situation in Brazil. The country is the second most bereaved in the world with more than 600,000 dead and the economic crisis that followed the pandemic has plunged a third of Brazilians into poverty. “The Senate acted under popular pressure,” says Mauricio Santoro, professor of political science at the University of Rio de Janeiro.
Little risk of dismissal
But if the report is going to be sent to the Attorney General and to the Assembly, it is unlikely to lead to any conviction. Two central figures in the process are in fact close relatives of Bolsonaro, appointed by him and able to protect him: “the public prosecutor, the only one who can bring him to justice, and the president of the chamber of representatives, alone to protect him. be able to launch an impeachment procedure ”in the event of a debate in the Assembly, specifies Christophe Ventura.
No dismissal in sight, therefore, but the blow is still harsh. “There is a risk on its popularity and the reduction of its political support”, points out Mauricio Santoro. While Brazil will enter a presidential election year, and Bolsonaro is given the loser against Lulla in some polls, he would be “disowned in the face of history” and very weakened according to Christophe Ventura.
It is therefore mainly his reputation that is targeted, especially through his sons. Those stationed in Rio de Janeiro are thus directly implicated in the lack of oxygen in the hospital, “which caused terrible scenes, highly publicized”. Bolsonaro is targeted for “charlatanism”, cited in a scandal of tests on “human guinea pigs”.
“He still refuses to be vaccinated! “
The Brazilian president does not intend to let himself be destabilized so easily, calling the ICC a “masquerade”. “It is Bolsonaro’s tactic to feed the polarization pump of political life” by engaging in an escalation, estimates the researcher at Iris. It is not even said that he is changing his tune on health policy. “He still refuses to be vaccinated! », Argues Mauricio Santoro. Bolsonaro has in fact already changed its position over the previous scandals, ordering a large number of vaccines. “He made it into communication, with photos of boats loaded with vaccines, and he launched the production of a Brazilian vaccine,” says Christophe Ventura.
But it is on the political level that the populist head of state, who “must show that he is not genocidal”, has the most to lose. “The ICC confirms that its alliance with the traditional right is dead. Bolsonaro now governs only with “the big center”, a motley set of fifteen parties, out of the thirty-five that make up the Assembly, opportunist and without an ideological line. “His situation will become complicated,” said Mauricio Santoro. Too much to win in 2022?