analysis
As of: 09/28/2021 4:58 a.m.
In the federal election, the CDU lost massive support in East Germany – the AfD gained in strength. But the real winner is the SPD. Does this also mean the time for new alliances in the Bundestag?
Lots of red and not just a little blue where black used to rule: the federal elections have thrown the political map upside down, especially in eastern Germany. Under Olaf Scholz in the federal government and Manuela Schwesig in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the Social Democrats achieved a turnaround that could not have been foreseen here in view of the recent disastrous election results. The East once again proves its willingness to change when the heads are right at the top.
Scholz’s big promise was the minimum wage of twelve euros, which is supposed to drain the low-wage sector here. His CDU opponent Armin Laschet advertised with the structural change billions that he had negotiated together with the Prime Ministers of Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt.
Since this money has already been put aside, a traffic light under Scholz would mean more change for the East. According to journalists, FDP circles were ready to talk at least before the election on the minimum wage. The Greens are demanding him anyway. Social security was also the winning topic of the election.
Convinced AfD regular electorate
The SPD won all direct mandates in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Brandenburg, and eight more in the other three federal states. The day after, the political debate focused on the AfD, as in 2017. The drove in Thuringia, in Saxony-Anhalt and especially in Saxony all of its 16 direct mandates nationwide. The CDU reached eight. After all, the left defended the south of Leipzig, in which the Connewitz district is also located.
The victories of the AfD are only at first glance. In Saxony, the party lost about as many second votes as in the federal government, over 60,000 even. This confirms a tendency across Germany: The AfD is stagnating for the time being, and is even melting away a little. At the same time, a convinced core electorate is revealed that remains loyal to the party and will certainly do so in the upcoming elections. In the northeast this is 18 percent of the voters, in the southeast 24 percent.
Probably also because they share the party’s chauvinist attitudes, do not disregard the protection of the Constitution and consider climate protection to be irrational. But also because the rural area, in which many of their voters live, continues to face so many problems that living conditions there will at best only improve slightly over the next few years. Thus the party remains in wait – and every new crisis would be a potential mobilization potential. For example, when the structural change in the Central German district fails, as Saxony-Anhalt’s Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff rightly warned. However, the AfD has just as little chance of co-governing in 2021 as in 2017.
Failed experiment in southern Thuringia
Haseloff himself spoke of a “disaster”, his CDU country chief Sven Schulze of a “catastrophe” and Saxony’s Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer of an “earthquake”. Since 6 p.m. on Sunday, only a few others in the Union have been so loud and clear about the election results.
Now the Eastern CDU has also had its share of the AfD values due to decades of lack of exclusion from extreme right-wing positions, but the election results clearly have to answer for Chancellor candidate Laschet and the federal party. This is shown by the values for the first votes, the Saxony-Anhalt election three months ago and various pre-election surveys.
The CDU could therefore become more prominent. On the one hand, it is more conservative and pithy in appearance, as many in the East would like, on the other hand with a clearer demarcation from the AfD. For the latter, the failed experiment of the CDU there in southern Thuringia with the ex-constitution protection president Hans-Georg Maaßen, who was open to the right, provides further arguments.
Black becomes red
A look at constituencies like Frankfurt (Oder) or Oder-Spree in the east of Brandenburg suggests further conclusions. Coming from fourth place, the SPD passed the Left, CDU and AfD. The latter could not benefit from the immense CDU losses, unlike in Saxony. Black becomes red, the AfD remains second.
If the polls before the federal election in four years’ time look similar, alliances between the parties should therefore also be discussed: it would be better to vote for the SPD here, the CDU there. This is already possible at the municipal level. That would at least keep the AfD away from direct mandates.
Left is no longer the Eastern Party
Such mind games do not arise for the left for the time being. Eastern left leaders now admit that they have lost their status as an Eastern party. Fourth place in the five countries is simply not enough. Red-Green-Red also missed a majority here. The party is clearly lacking a head that pulls. The controversial Sahra Wagenknecht, who traveled a lot in the East during the election campaign, couldn’t make up for that either.
The federal trend helped the Greens, at least after several elections, well over the five percent hurdle everywhere in the East. Similar to the FDP, they are now firmly anchored here in the long term, and it was not enough for the attack on the Chancellor’s office.
Post-reunification children in the Bundestag
When it comes to forming a government in the federal government, however, the East should now insist on speed. With the exception of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the government has been in three-party coalitions for a long time. Unlike the FDP in the federal government in 2017, they never afforded the luxury of breaking off talks about such an alliance.
And the election result has one good thing: with the exception of the left – and with reservations, the FDP – all parties send several young MPs around 30 who grew up in the East to the Bundestag. The generation of post-reunification children has thus arrived in the highest parliament.