Battles for Soledar and Bachmut: “More political than strategic importance”

Are the embattled cities of Soledar and Bachmut really that strategically important? Probably not, says military expert Gady. Above all, the Kremlin is more concerned with a political success. Is the Ukrainian leadership miscalculating?

tagesschau.de: What is the significance of the battles for Soledar and Bakhmut in the overall context of the war?

Franz Stefan Gady: I wouldn’t overestimate the importance of these fights. The overall strategic situation at the front would not change significantly if Soledar and Bakhmut fell. It is still a war of attrition. And Russia, from a purely military perspective, is not so much about taking territory as it is about bleeding and tying down Ukrainian forces, thereby preventing a ground offensive – say, from Zaporizhia, aimed at Melitopol.

In the coming weeks and months, the approximately 200,000 additional men mobilized by the Russian armed forces will be deployed – at the moment there are an estimated 100,000 deployed in Ukraine. And then an offensive could take place in the Kharkiv area or from Belarus.

However, I think the chances of success if Kyiv is attacked from the direction of Belarus are relatively low. But it is an additional problem that the Ukrainian General Staff has to grapple with.

“The Kremlin needs a victory”

tagesschau.de: How great is the strategic value of Soledar and Bachmut?

Gady: The value of these cities is not so much strategic, although it should be noted that Bakhmut is an important transport hub in the region. It’s more about the fact that both sides have declared that this city is important because it is important.

I believe that Bakhmut has a political significance primarily for the Kremlin. He needs a victory for the Russian units. Internal factors are at play here, considering that Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov and the head of the Wagner mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, have repeatedly highlighted their units’ gains in territory over the past few months.

A success in Soledar and Bakhmut would be a victory for the Russian forces. And success would be defined primarily by inflicting huge casualties on Ukrainian forces. Of course, they are also enormously high on the Russian side, also among the Wagner mercenaries, where of the 50,000 who were mobilized, probably 10,000 to 15,000 mercenaries have already been killed or wounded.

“Possibly miscalculation by the Ukrainian leadership”

tagesschau.de: Does it make any strategic sense at all for the Ukrainians to counter this at this point instead of conserving their strength for other fights?

Gady: Here I can only speculate what determines the actions of the Ukrainian political leadership. There may have been a miscalculation here.

Last summer, in the battles for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, it issued the motto not to retreat. This has led to enormous losses on the Ukrainian side, but even more so on the Russian armed forces. At that time there was an enormous shortage of infantry, i.e. foot soldiers, and reserves in general on the Russian side. Now the Russian side doesn’t have that shortage because they have reserves in the region, albeit poorly equipped and trained, that they can throw into the fight.

Bachmut has little military significance. Possibly it was the Russian idea to give this city a political importance and thereby lure the Ukrainians into a war of attrition, so that the Ukrainians do not carry out a winter offensive or they have to postpone their announced spring offensive.

If there is actually no major offensive from the Ukrainian side, this could be an indication that this attrition effect has set in and that the Ukrainian armed forces are currently not capable of conducting offensive operations. We know from several reports from various intelligence services that ammunition is running low on both sides.

“Unrealistic that Russian forces could take Kyiv”

tagesschau.de: There is currently frequent speculation that there could be a new Russian offensive on the capital Kyiv – you already mentioned that at the beginning. Do you see any signs of this? And what are the chances of success?

Gady: That remains a possibility. The only question is: what kind of Ukrainian forces would it bind? And would the chances of success for the Russian armed forces be better than in February 2022, when it didn’t work with significantly more Russian troops and what they saw as a better balance of power?

In order to conquer Kyiv in urban combat, one would probably need at least 200,000 to 300,000 soldiers. It is totally unrealistic for Russian forces to take Kyiv at this point because the forces simply aren’t there.

“Both sides have learned”

tagesschau.de: And the Ukrainian armed forces have been learning since February.

Gady: Yes, they are well prepared for an attack and know from which directions it could take place. Preparations on the Belarusian and Russian sides would not go unnoticed.

I don’t think the Russian armed forces have a great chance of success, because supplies would be extremely difficult. There is still no air superiority, there are few roads that could be traveled there and a limited rail network.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces now have much more defensive experience, are stronger in numbers and have well-established, echeloned defensive positions. The tactical element of surprise would not exist for the Russian armed forces either, thanks to well-functioning Ukrainian and Western enemy reconnaissance.

However, the Russians have also learned something new, which is often suppressed. Both sides have adapted and are trying to apply new operational concepts of how to defeat the enemy on the battlefield.

“It’s about eventually breaking the will to fight”

tagesschau.de: Nonetheless, it is hard to imagine that the Russian armed forces would be satisfied with the status quo, especially since the effect of the mobilization has not yet been fully exploited.

Gady: The main goal of the Russian armed forces, in purely military terms, is not so much great rapid territorial gains. It is much more about tying down Ukrainian forces in other regions of the country, inflicting considerable losses on them and thus eventually breaking the will to fight. Or to prolong this conflict until Western support caves in.

The conversation was led by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de