One month after Azerbaijani troops captured Nagorno-Karabakh, many Armenians fear that the escalation in the Middle East could also extend to the South Caucasus: several regional powers have interests – and goals – there.
It was barely four weeks ago that thousands gathered in the central square of Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital in panic to flee to Armenia. Most recently, the International Red Cross helped the elderly and sick leave the region. Barely ten Armenians are said to have remained after Azerbaijani troops advanced into the part of their country that had been under the control of the Armenians who had called it home for centuries for more than 30 years.
This weekend, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev celebrated himself as the one who achieved the historic goal of reconquest. Not only did he raise the Azerbaijani flag in military uniform and kiss it on his knees. He also made sure to trample on the flag of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in the presidential palace.
However, he was alone and there was no cheering surrounding him. In fact, the capture of Nagorno-Karabakh did not cause any enthusiasm in Azerbaijan, confirms journalist Javid Agha from Baku. The Azerbaijanis have less of an association with the areas that have now been taken than with places like the culturally important city of Shusha. This had already been taken in the 2020 war, which cost the lives of thousands of soldiers. According to official information, more than 200 Azerbaijani soldiers were killed during the “anti-terrorism operation” on September 19th and 20th.
Between shock and determination
Armenia now reported an equally high number of fighters killed and more than 20 civilians killed. The government in Yerevan is providing the more than 100,000 refugees with financial aid. Now the long-term integration is on the agenda – with the challenge of avoiding tensions with the traditional population.
In Armenia in recent weeks there has been a mood of anger and shock, determination and fear that Aliyev may not have had enough. Many Armenians saw confirmation in a report by the magazine “Politico” on October 13th. Accordingly, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented on Armenia to a small group of representatives in Washington: His ministry was keeping an eye on the possibility of an early Azerbaijani invasion. However, when asked by an Armenian media outlet, the US State Department did not want to confirm this account. Blinken is also said to have spoken to MPs on October 3 – four days before Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel.
Consequences of developments in the Middle East
These events in the Middle East also have an impact on Armenia and Azerbaijan, as important regional powers, not least Israel, pursue objectives in the South Caucasus. It is striking, for example, that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan brought about at least a slight relaxation in a meeting with Aliyev on October 6th. He did not mention the long-planned “Zangesur Corridor,” which would connect Azerbaijan with the Nakhichevan exclave across Armenian territory. Aliyev’s demand for the establishment of this “Zangesur corridor” is behind fears of an invasion by Azerbaijan. Instead, Erdogan announced a transport connection past Armenia through the territory of its southern neighbor Iran.
This is remarkable because there was already an agreement on this in 2022. However, Turkey and Iran are otherwise rivals, including in this conflict: an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan would mean that Turkey, as Azerbaijan’s traditional ally, and Iran would be drawn into the confrontation on Armenia’s side. Iran had threatened several times: It would not be tolerated if Azerbaijan cut Iran off from Armenia through an invasion.
It is striking that after the meeting with Erdogan, Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev has not yet discussed the “Zangesur Corridor” in his threats against Armenia. This suggests that Turkey and Iran are willing to put aside their differences at this point and focus their capabilities elsewhere.
Alliance between Israel and Azerbaijan
On the other hand, further escalation in the Middle East could lead to a conflagration that also affects the South Caucasus – if there is a direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran. Israel is another close ally and officially strategic partner of Azerbaijan, located north of Iran.
Israel has been sourcing more than 50 percent of its oil imports from Azerbaijan for years. Conversely, Israel contributed significantly to the modernization of the Azerbaijani armed forces. According to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), between 2017 and 2020, more than 60 percent of all Azerbaijan’s arms imports came from Israel. This became visible in the 2020 war, when the Azerbaijani armed forces, with the combined use of drones, modern rockets and artillery, were able to take over areas under Armenian control that were previously considered impregnable.
As before the 2020 war, before the Azerbaijani armed forces finally captured Nagorno-Karabakh in mid-September, there was a noticeable increase in transport flights between military airports in Israel and Azerbaijan. Observers had interpreted this as a sure sign that military action by Azerbaijan was imminent – which turned out to be correct.
That is why the fact that such flight movements have been observed again between Israel and Azerbaijan for days is not only causing unrest among Armenian social media users. However, what is not clear from the flight data: Are these transports to or from Israel? Will military equipment possibly be transported back to Israel or more brought to Azerbaijan? The latter as preparation for an operation against Armenia or Iran?
Tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran
For Iran, the close cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan has long been a source of threats: the leadership in Tehran has been accusing its northern neighbor for years of providing Israel with a platform for espionage activities and possibly military operations.
On the one hand, Azerbaijan is grouped with Turkey and Israel and on the other hand, Iran is grouped with Armenia. The latter is squeezed between hostile neighbors and is more dependent than ever on allies. Because the old protecting power Russia is now pursuing its interests at the expense of Armenia.
In the European Parliament on Tuesday, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared his readiness for a peace agreement with Azerbaijan by the end of the year and asked for support and attention for Armenia.