It doesn’t look good for the electricity bill. The Energy Regulatory Commission (Cre) could propose an increase of between 10 and 20% in regulated electricity tariffs (TRV) in February 2024. The actual increase will not be confirmed before the end of the year, because the decision depends on the government. But the commission’s mission is to calculate a theoretical rate, based on market prices. The regulated rate, which benefits the majority of households, changes twice a year, on February 1st and August 1st.
A decision that depends on the government
“In this entire period of crisis, it is necessary to separate the calculation of theoretical TRV, which is the application of the calculation formula, from the decision which is the responsibility of the government, namely the part which is acceptable and the part which must be financed by the state budget,” recalled Emmanuelle Wargon, president of the Cre. This is what happened this year: on February 1, 2023, Cre, based on the costs of supplying electricity on wholesale markets, had calculated an increase in the average level of regulated tariffs of electricity by 99.22%, but the government had decided to limit this increase to 15%.
“On TRV, it’s still a little early to do the equation, since we do the TRV calculations on the basis of prices over the previous two years, so we will have to wait to see the prices at the end of 2023,” warned Emmanuelle Wargon. “Nevertheless, we will be in a theoretical TRV calculation which will be a much lower increase than what we were able to do last year,” she added.
An increase of 10% maximum
Compared to the calculation at +99.22%, “we will not be in that zone at all, we will be in a zone of 10, 20% roughly,” declared Emmanuelle Wargon. A few hours after this press briefing, Cre specified that “the theoretical calculation that Cre would propose to the government could result in an evolution whose order of magnitude would be 10% maximum at the start of 2024, in current market conditions, before possible application of a tariff shield”.
After the 15% increase in February, the government decided on August 1 to increase regulated electricity prices by 10%, thus marking the gradual exit from the tariff shield, with the government wishing to reduce the burden on finances. public.