The hiss, the silence, the explosion. The sound of falling bombs is familiar to Palestinians and Ukrainians. For almost two years, Ukraine has become a huge battlefield, where living hundreds of kilometers from the front does not protect you from missiles. In Gaza, the target of the Israeli response to the Hamas attacks of October 7, there are so many ruins that one wonders what else artillery could destroy.
Two international conflicts have broken out in two years, not counting the clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh this summer. “For ten years, there has been a return of tensions between States” which the UN is no longer able to prevent, analyzes for 20 minutes the historian and strategist Michel Goya. What is there to fear about the start of a new war in 2024? We tour the world’s hot spots with our expert.
China – Taiwan, the invasion is preparing
The state of tensions: The worst was feared in 2023. In April, China responded to the meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen and American Speaker Kevin McCarthy by launching “total encirclement” exercises of the island, by means of ships and submarines. A sort of big rehearsal before landing on the coast. In August, several dozen Chinese military planes crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
And the election on Saturday of Lai Chang-te, from an independence party, doesn’t help matters. Beijing seems more determined than ever to recover the island on which the nationalist government took refuge in 1949, after the communists took power. Saturday’s vote “will not hinder the inevitable trend of reunification with China”, a Chinese spokesperson said.
The expert’s opinion: “China does not have the military means to conquer Taiwan today, but it is building them. It needs an amphibious landing fleet, for example. An attempt now would surely fail, especially if the United States intervenes, but it would also be deadly for the Americans. We would have to accept between 5,000 and 10,000 deaths in three weeks of fighting depending on the scenarios, which casts doubt on this intervention. A priori, in 2024 Taiwan risks nothing, but an invasion is likely in the coming years. »
North Korea – South Korea, the enemy brothers
The state of tensions: Here too, tensions have existed for decades. Besides, peace was never really signed. Throughout the year, North Korea has increased its ballistic missile launches at sea, a way of maintaining the threat level while testing new weapons. But Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia and the signing of a military cooperation treaty are cause for concern.
Pyongyang conducted a “tactical nuclear attack simulation” in September and says it has built a “tactical nuclear attack submarine.” The North Korean leader also estimated that the peninsula was “on the verge of a nuclear war” and warned that he would have “no hesitation to annihilate” South Korea. But he will not “unilaterally” trigger the conflict, he assures the official KCNA agency.
The expert’s opinion: “It is not clear what could trigger this conflict. It could have been done by the Americans earlier to disconnect the North Korean nuclear program, now it is too late. And we don’t see why Kim Jong-un would go for it, he has everything to lose against very superior powers. This would be a hazardous and suicidal military adventure. An error of judgment by a manager can always happen, but it remains unlikely. »
Venezuela – Guyana, the unexpected temptation
The state of tensions: It’s a corner of the globe that we’re not necessarily used to examining. But while American sanctions have just been eased, Venezuela could engage in an unexpected conflict. At the beginning of December, President Nicolas Maduro summoned his people to the polls for a referendum on the integration of the Essequibo region, although held by Guyana, into his country. Clear result, with more than 95% “yes”.
The region, populated by 125,000 people, is rich in oil and natural resources. In response to this referendum, the United Kingdom sent a patrol ship to maneuver in the waters of Guyana, its former colony. The start of a crisis between London and Caracas, since Venezuela has massed 5,600 soldiers on the border to participate in exercises of a “defensive” nature. Guyana has referred the matter to the International Court of Justice, but Venezuela does not recognize the jurisdiction of the UN institution on this subject.
The expert’s opinion: “What gives Venezuela an opportunity is that we are in a less internationally regulated world. A few years ago, the UN Security Council would have taken significant retaliatory measures, we are no longer in this configuration. There is also the possibility of saying that the Americans are too busy elsewhere to intervene. If Venezuela attacks, it would win against Guyana, but it must achieve a blitzkrieg. If this provokes Western intervention, it would be a catastrophe. But this conflict is not impossible. »
And elsewhere ?
Many other tensions exist, even if there has been no recent statement or friction. “China-India, India-Pakistan, Azerbaijan-Armenia, Congo-Rwanda tensions,” lists Michel Goya. The former colonel of the marine troops also talks about “the war in South America against criminal networks”. But the area to watch remains the Middle East, where the urgency is to avoid a regionalization of the Israel – Hamas conflict. “It could be done at the initiative of Israel, which wants to get rid of Hezbollah and hurt Iran,” he points out.