1 trillion tax revenue is not enough

Finance Minister on Thursday Christian Lindner (FDP) from faraway Japan to announce what federal, state and local governments can expect in terms of tax revenue up to the year 2028. Most recently, 993 billion euros were forecast for the next year, of which 390 billion euros are attributable to the federal government. After the federal government assesses the prospects for the German economy as somewhat brighter, the trillion mark could be reached as early as next year.

That was last predicted for 2025. Because the Federal Minister of Finance will be in Niigata at the end of the week to meet his counterparts from the group of the seven most important industrialized countries, Lindner will only be able to be seen virtually at home – at the usual time in the afternoon (in Japan it is then 10 p.m.).

The high inflation helps the Treasury, since the tax burden mostly depends on nominal values. Since the traffic light adjusted the income tax rate to the currency depreciation in autumn and this could not be taken into account in the estimate at the end of October (the legislation had not yet been completed at the time), the additional result should ultimately be kept within narrow limits. For the foreseeable future, it will not be enough to close the gap in the federal budget that Federal Ministry of Finance recently estimated at 18 billion euros – without the additional demands of the other departments.

Talks on the 2024 budget were recently suspended. Can the tax estimate put an end to the coalition’s self-blockade? Simple question, amazing answer: The Federal Ministry of Finance does not assume that the responsible working group will forecast such high additional income that all traffic light problems will be resolved with pleasure. On the contrary, at most a small plus is considered possible. And yet it could be the moment that will lead to a resumption of talks at ministerial level.

The usual tax plus has long been planned

When the framework for the budget is fixed, the necessary decisions can no longer be postponed. After all, the cabinet wants to approve the draft budget for next year on June 21st. Unlike in the previous decade, there are no benchmarks for this. There is not much time left, work all the more. The federal budget last consisted of 1,500 pages with many more titles, as the budget politicians call the individual expenditure items.

So far, the coalition has avoided concrete austerity decisions. Recently, gigantic loans helped to bridge all the gaps. Before that, additional tax revenue always came at the right time. Now you have to save in order to be able to comply with the debt rule, which Lindner insists on. The traffic light has also set itself the task of “reducing superfluous, ineffective and environmentally and climate-damaging subsidies and expenditure”. But not much has happened there yet. In a “savings book”, the taxpayers’ association reminds how much higher interest rates and foreseeable repayment obligations will hit the bank. The usual tax plus has long been planned. The interest group is therefore calling for spending cuts.

1.3 million euros – the hairstyle is right

Using a few examples, he makes it clear that there is potential. For example, the Federal Ministry of Research is funding an app for desired hairstyles with more than 1.3 million euros until autumn 2025. “Augmented Reality” is intended to prevent people from leaving their trusted hairdresser sobered up in the future. The taxpayers’ association calls this a “smart idea”, but warns at the same time: It is not a core state task to optimize customer loyalty, productivity and thus the profit prospects for hairdressing salons. “We say no and demand a cut!”

Another case he describes concerns Düsseldorf Airport. It is said that he will receive around 740,000 euros to convert the interior lighting in his car parks to LED technology and a new control system. The funding came from the National Climate Protection Initiative, which is managed by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection. The ministry supports 30 percent of the project costs. The taxpayers’ association counters: “Düsseldorf Airport should have a vital self-interest in lighting its parking garages more energy-efficiently.”

He also impales the “80 million together for energy change” campaign. Up to 15 million euros a year would be available from 2023 to 2025 for advice such as “Let’s reduce our shower time to a maximum of five minutes and lower the water temperature a little, not only do we save hot water but also energy”. The taxpayers’ association doubts that there is a sensible relationship between expenditure and income.

Film producer Lindner

That’s not all: According to him, not only subscribers pay for series on streaming platforms, but all taxpayers. They are financiers of various series productions via the German Motion Picture Fund, with which the federal government has been promoting international co-produced high-end series since 2016, such as “1899” and “Babylon Berlin”. This year, around 41 million euros have been set aside for this fund in the federal budget.

According to the Association of Taxpayers, a total of 609,000 euros are available from the budget of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research for the years 2021 to 2024 for a research project in which citizens receive scientific support when they part with superfluous things (“decluttering”). BMBF) available. First, the researchers wanted to examine existing methods and concepts for property reduction. Interested citizens later tested the methods on themselves. “The focus is on suggestions for reflection and cleaning up,” he quotes from the project’s website.

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According to Reiner Holznagel, President of the Taxpayers’ Association, this is exactly what is required in the federal budget. “If the state will soon be able to record 1000 billion euros in tax payments from citizens and companies, it will have to manage this large amount of money sensibly,” he warns. This applies above all to the federal government, which is still deep in the red. “For me, the bottom line is: Germany doesn’t have a problem with revenue, but with spending.”