The DAX builds on the gains of the previous week: After choppy trading, the leading German stock exchange index closed slightly higher, trading at 18,118 points. Since prices also rose on Wall Street, further profits can be expected in today’s Tuesday business. There are possible sources of inspiration for this.
On the economic side, there are two dates in focus: The Federal Statistical Office presents the preliminary data on German gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter. Experts expect that the economy will have narrowly avoided a recession in the winter. They expect GDP to have increased by 0.1 percent, after a decline of 0.3 percent in the final quarter of 2023. With two quarters in a row of shrinking economic output, economists are talking about a technical recession.
The April consumer price data from the euro area will show how far the ECB has come in the fight against increased inflation before the targeted interest rate turnaround. Experts expect a stabilization at an inflation rate of 2.4 percent, which was already achieved in March. The ECB is aiming for a value of two percent as ideal for the euro area. It has signaled that it will discuss a rate cut in June if there are no negative surprises by then.
On the corporate side, the auto sector is coming to the fore. The two car manufacturers VW and Mercedes-Benz are likely to have started the year weaker. Analysts assume that Volkswagen’s profits and sales shrank in the first quarter – sales by a good three percent and operating profit (EBIT) by 15 percent. The fact that the high-yield premium subsidiary Audi has recently sold fewer cars, while the core brand Volkswagen has done better, may play a role. At Mercedes-Benz, analysts expect operating profits to fall by almost 30 percent to 3.9 billion euros following a decline in sales in the main Cars division. Model changes and bottlenecks in the supply chain are putting a strain on the car business; the smaller van division can only partially compensate for this with its profits.
Lufthansa also presents its detailed quarterly report. As early as mid-April, the airline flu reported a surprisingly high, seasonal deficit in the first three months – caused by direct and indirect costs of strikes at the main brand Lufthansa and the subsidiary Austrian Airlines. The profit forecast for the full year was therefore cut by half a billion euros. The focus is on expectations for the peak summer season and the prospects of getting the EU Commission’s blessing for the long-sought takeover of Italian Alitalia’s successor ITA Airways.
After the US stock market closes, Amazon will come up with figures. Stock marketers are focusing their attention on the important cloud division Amazon Web Services (AWS). According to analysts, this is falling behind the competition in terms of growth. Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud can attract more and more customers to their data centers thanks to numerous offerings with artificial intelligence (AI).
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