First, the Malian military government, which finally seized power two years ago, terminated its cooperation with the former colonial power France. Then it was the turn of other Western countries, which led, among other things, to the announced withdrawal of the German armed forces by the end of May 2024.
But now interim President Assimi Goïta, who prefers to cooperate with the Russian Wagner mercenaries, wants the entire UN peacekeeping force out of the country. Most of their 13,000 volunteers come from Chad, Niger, Togo, Egypt and Senegal.
Nils Schmid, the foreign policy spokesman for the SPD parliamentary group in the Bundestag, says that these countries would be “anything but happy about the fact that they are being thrown out of the country, as it were”.
The end of the stabilization mission, which has been running for ten years and which the Malian government surprisingly demanded on June 16, is now taking concrete shape because it is not possible without the consent of the host country. This Friday, the United Nations Security Council in New York will vote on the form in which the withdrawal should take place.
Many scenarios, but the mission will definitely be shorter
“The original French draft resolution, on the basis of which the deliberations in the Security Council were initiated, provides for an extension of the mandate until the end of the year,” said the Foreign Office in Berlin. Because the exact end date is still subject to last-minute negotiations, it could also be pushed forward or back by two or three months.
However, it is also considered possible that permanent Security Council member Russia will use its veto right to create as much chaos as possible. Then there would not even be a short-term successor regulation for the mandate that expires this Friday.
But even that would not be a lawless state. “Even if Russia uses its veto in the Security Council and there is no UN mandate for Mali from Saturday, the soldiers are protected under international law until they are finally withdrawn by the “Status of Forces Agreement” and the original founding resolution of the mission.” it in the Foreign Office. This is tantamount to a kind of diplomatic status.
Either way, the Bundeswehr is now preparing to have to leave the country well before May 31, 2024. “We will try to get out a little faster, to get out of Mali,” said Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) on Wednesday.
A spokesman for his ministry added that there is already “a contingency plan” that even includes a deduction “within a few days” in the event of an acutely worsening risk situation.
Earlier withdrawal is said to be quite possible
According to information from government circles, the date can be brought forward by a few months. The reason given is that the German forces of the Minusma blue helmet mission no longer have to provide reconnaissance capabilities under the new circumstances, as originally planned.
The helicopters that the Bundeswehr wanted to keep available for possible logistical support in the spring elections would no longer be needed in this case.
However, the new situation for the German contingent in the so-called “Camp Castor” in the Malian city of Gao is not quite as easy as the ministries involved want it to be. “There are a number of factors that make the withdrawal in this new constellation more difficult and would extend it,” SPD foreign expert Schmid told the Tagesspiegel: “The Bundeswehr actually wanted to leave parts of their equipment to the United Nations.”
Now everything in Gao’s camp would have to be “completely dismantled”. In addition, the troops’ own transport logistics are of little use, “since there is only one airport through which everyone has to leave the country – there could be a traffic jam”.
Regardless of the outcome of the vote in New York, a vote in Berlin could also increase the time pressure. According to a draft application that is available to the Tagesspiegel, the Union faction wants to call on the federal government next week to end the deployment as part of the Minusma mission “if possible by the end of 2023”.
Because of the blockade by the Malian military government, he had become “ineffective and therefore useless” anyway, said her foreign policy spokesman Jürgen Hardt in the Tagesspiegel. Therefore, his group called early on to end the operation by the end of the year – and refused to approve the traffic light date of May 2024.
According to Hardt, setting an earlier withdrawal date would help to avoid the “race for withdrawal capacities”: “If the UN mandate is not extended, everyone wants to withdraw as quickly as possible.” The Union faction is therefore expecting an alternative plan from the federal government next week, Hardt continues: “Our soldiers have a right to security.”
We are also demanding that the military operation in neighboring Niger, which has only just begun, be expanded. According to the draft application, skills are to be retained “that are also important for continued German engagement in the Sahel region in the future”. The current personnel limit for the Bundeswehr mandate in Niger is 60 soldiers. They are to support the build-up of the Nigerien armed forces there as part of an EU mission.
Contingency plans for development projects
The looming end of the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali also has consequences for development cooperation. Ultimately, it is to be expanded in order to compensate for the withdrawal of the Bundeswehr in a certain way and to continue to be present in the region that is strategically important for Germany and Europe.
“The development projects in the Gao area and central Mali in particular have benefited so far from the security that Minusma creates,” a spokesman for the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development told the Tagesspiegel: “Should the situation deteriorate, plans are in place to redirect the projects.”
But one is still optimistic. After all, Minister Svenja Schulze wants to be elected President of the Sahel Alliance, the most important international support group for the crisis region, in just under two weeks.
“We currently assume that development cooperation will be possible in large parts of the country even without the presence of the Bundeswehr, as long as there is no substantial general deterioration in the situation,” the spokesman continued: “We are already working in Mali in crisis mode with tightened security monitoring.” .