In its war against Hamas, Israel leans with both feet on its reservists. After the bloody attacks of October 7, 360,000 of them were called to fight under the flags. “The IDF has never mobilized so many reservists so quickly,” a spokesperson for the Israeli army then underlined in the columns of the Times of Israel. Nearly three months later, the Army announced that reservists would be taking a break and some brigades would be rotating.
“The Israeli army must plan ahead, as we will be called upon for additional tasks and combat throughout this year,” said Daniel Hagari, an Israeli army spokesman. “The Israeli army announced that the war would take place throughout 2024, so it is not illogical that there would be a rotation of combat units,” reacts David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at Iris, Institute of International and Strategic Relationsand editor-in-chief of the magazine Strategic Orients. “This is perhaps the beginning of a third phase of the war, which is long-term,” he notes.
A long-term conflict
“Israel is entering into a logic of prolonged combat with the economic variable taken into account because human resources are not inexhaustible. Soldiers must be able to rest but also train again for future battles,” underlines David Rigoulet-Roze. “These declarations come in anticipation of a conflict which will last longer than expected,” adds Jonathan Piron, Middle East specialist at Etopia. This is an operational adaptation to relieve the workforce and the economy. »
Because financing the war is a Sisyphean ordeal in itself. According to the Washington Post, who surveyed economists, the Israeli government spends on average 220 million dollars (or a little more than 200 million euros) per day to finance its operations in Gaza. The 360,000 reservists called to fight come from civil society. However, Israel is a small country that is home to fewer than 10 million people. The number of conscripts is therefore “colossal”, as Jonathan Piron notes.
“Reservists are the backbone of the IDF [l’armée israélienne]. Mobilization therefore inevitably takes human resources from economic activity,” explains David Rigoulet-Roze, who recalls that the Israeli economy includes many small and medium-sized businesses. “When a significant number of assets are mobilized, it is obviously destabilizing for a company, especially if it is an SME,” he adds.
The power of the IDF and the weakness of the government
The “backbone” of the Israeli army, however, remains strong. “The army is a symbol of the country and the population’s confidence is strong,” notes Jonathan Piron. It is so anchored in the daily life of Israelis that “you are refused certain jobs if you have not done your military service”. Some young people have publicly announced their refusal to take up arms, like Tal Mitnick, first to refuse military service since the October 7 attacks. “There may be individual doubts about the modalities of the military operation but overall the entire population adheres to the IDF strategy,” says David Rigoulet-Roze. The population has great confidence in its army which does not seem to have eroded since the start of the conflict.
Unlike the government of Benyamin Netanyahu, which is suffering the blow. Criticism has been coming against the executive but also against intelligence since the attacks of October 7. Accused of not having taken the threat seriously, the Israeli Prime Minister saw his popularity rating plummet. So, “prolonging the conflict is also a question of opportunism for the Israeli executive. The current government has every interest in prolonging the state of war in order to protect itself from any political tension,” notes Jonathan Piron who adds that even the oppositions do not question the country’s military operations.
The Jewish state is, however, facing a risk of political crisis as well as growing international pressure. Prolonging the conflict has an economic but also a diplomatic cost for Israel, while more than 22,000 people have died in Gaza, mainly women and children. With an army massively supported by the population and a large number of reservists, the colossus has neither the feet nor the fragile spine. But he should watch his head.