After the “phew” of relief, the “gurgles” of the unknown. The National Assembly definitively adopted the first part of the 2023 budget last week. And for lack of an absolute majority, Elisabeth Borne used yet another 49.3 to pass the Social Security financing law, ending weeks of intense debate.
This is the seventh time that the Prime Minister has engaged the government’s responsibility for finance bills, and she could still use it to close the 2023 budget by mid-December. But to pass the next texts, on pensions or immigration, the government will no longer have this magic tool at will. What make the majority dizzy, promised to tough battles in the Hemicycle.
“We are entering the moment of truth”
“On the budget, the 49.3 are gifts, it is after that we will have difficulties …”, breathed, from the month of September, a deputy from Horizons. This is the rule provided for by the Constitution: the government can use 49.3 at will on the budgetary texts, but it only has one per parliamentary session, that is to say until next June. The sweet habit, taken in recent weeks by the government, of whistling the end of recess when it wishes, therefore ends.
“We ate our white bread. But now, we are without a net, like mountaineers without a rope facing the void, ”ironically a heavyweight of the majority. “We’re in the unknown and we’ll know if it’s going well or not. This exit from the budget period is crucial, we are entering the moment of truth and I do not see the opposition giving us gifts, ”worries a MoDem deputy for his part.
“Hold the opposition to their responsibilities”
Especially since the texts that arrive are not small matters. First: the pension reform, the outlines of which Elisabeth Borne is to announce in mid-December, and which is already contested by all the unions. “There is no uncertainty, but rather a questioning: we have a project and presidential commitments. How are we going to succeed in convincing parliamentarians? “Asks MP Anne Genetet, vice-president of the Renaissance group. “Perhaps some opposition is ambushed, but we will not fall into the trap,” she continues. We will seek votes by working upstream, by making detours to the right or to the left, because nobody has an interest in blocking the country”.
The majority intends to put the pressure of a possible blockage on the other groups. “If we want to make the reforms that the country needs, we must stop the care bear mode and rather dramatize, put the oppositions face to face with their responsibilities”, advances a parliamentarian close to Emmanuel Macron. “On the budget, everyone was in the posture and opposed at little cost, knowing that there would be a 49.3 behind”, adds MP Benjamin Haddad, spokesperson for the Renaissance group. “But will the ecologists or the socialists oppose renewable energies? [l’examen du texte a débuté en commission] ? Will the right oppose the tightening of OQTFs, or the postponement of the retirement age, which it has been advocating for years? We have found compromises on purchasing power or unemployment insurance, we will continue to do so, ”he said.
“We will not be the crutch of the majority”.
The gaze of the macronists then turns mainly to Les Républicains. But the party which could be tomorrow in the hands of Eric Ciotti, will he really be ready to help Emmanuel Macron? “The Republicans will be ready to help France. When they are not behind a microphone, we can work together, ”cuts Oise deputy Eric Woerth, who left LR last February to join the presidential party. “It will be necessary to convince but without discount, each text will have to have a real impact in society”, adds the quaestor of the Assembly.
So far, the president of the LR group, Olivier Marleix, has also been rather open to negotiations on pension reform. Right-wing elected officials, on the other hand, harshly criticized the first announcements on immigration. While uncertainty hovers above the Hemicycle, an LR executive warns the macronists: “If the texts resemble our copy, we can vote for them. But we will not always be the crutch of the majority ”. On the question of pensions, the government has already thought of a way out: to use an amending budget at the start of next year to push through the reform. Elisabeth Borne would thus offer herself the possibility of grilling a new free 49.3.