With 50 million French people first-vaccinated, France reached a new milestone this Friday. And as good news never comes alone, it seems, epidemic indicators seem to be improving in recent days, so much so that Emmanuel Macron is even considering lifting the health pass in some places.
Massive vaccination, drop in contamination, drop in the number of patients in intensive care … The health situation is (almost) in good shape. A year and a half after the start of the coronavirus epidemic, is France seeing the end of the tunnel?
Several million unvaccinated French people
This is the good news of the week. The symbolic milestone of 50 million people who have received at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine, which the government hoped to cross at the end of August, was reached on Friday, Emmanuel Macron announced in a video posted on social networks. This figure is added to the more than 47 million French people fully vaccinated by September 15, nearly 70% of the population, according to data from the Ministry of Health. “The vaccine effort has made it possible to achieve coverage which is very interesting, this level has a real impact on the consequences of the epidemic”, rejoices Professor Djillali Annane, head of the intensive care unit of the Raymond hospital. Poincaré de Garches, near 20 minutes.
If the figures are good, there are still many unvaccinated French people, warns Catherine Hill, epidemiologist at the Gustave Roussy Institute in Villejuif, also interviewed by 20 minutes. “Of course, more than 47 million people have been fully vaccinated, but eight million French people over 12 years old have not yet been vaccinated, in addition to the nine million under 12 years old. There are still many people likely to catch the coronavirus, to be hospitalized or to go to intensive care “, warns the expert, who believes that France” has not left the hostel “.
Indicators to be taken with caution
However, at the end of August, it was the Prime Minister himself declared that France was on “the right path” of a return to “normal life”. Would Jean Castex be too optimistic? According to data from Public Health France, the health situation seems to be slowly improving in France. On Friday, the number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 continued to decline, with 9,070 patients, against 9,297 on Thursday. The same goes for the intensive care units, which had 1,891 patients with Covid-19 on Friday, against 1,952 the day before. The positivity rate, which stands at 1.7%, is at its lowest since mid-July.
For Professor Djillali Annane, the epidemiological indicators are going in the right direction: “The situation is improving. We can even say that we have never been so close to the end of the tunnel. We now have confirmation that the vaccination has a very strong positive impact, it did not prevent the fourth wave, but it made it possible to considerably mitigate its impact, in particular on the hospital system ”, estimates the head of intensive care. For Catherine Hill, it’s not enough to look at the latest data, but rather those of the last few months. “We have effectively gone from 905 hospitalizations on average over seven days in August to 391 this week, but, if we look at the data from the beginning of July, during the epidemic trough, there were 109 people hospitalized on average over seven days”, details the specialist who insists: “Yes, things have gone down, things are getting better, but it is not perfect, we are not out of business yet”.
Be careful with the health pass
But for the Head of State, the indicators are good enough to consider lifting the health pass in places. “As soon as the sanitary conditions allow it and, in my opinion, when I see the figures, it will not come so late”, we will be able to “allow ourselves in the territories where the virus circulates less quickly to lift certain constraints and to relive normally, ”said Emmanuel Macron on Thursday. And his Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, gave it a layer. Affirming that the situation of the Covid-19 epidemic in France had “considerably improved”, the neurologist indicated that if “this dynamic” continued, “we can begin to consider alleviating certain measures”.
For Catherine Hill, the lifting of the health pass “in some places and not in others, it will encourage the mixing of the population and promote contamination”, explains the epidemiologist, who believes that it would be a “premature” decision and ” unreasonable ”. Professor Djillali Annane, for his part, calls for not rushing to lift “the mechanisms that allow to control the circulation of the virus, such as the health pass”. “The moment must be well chosen, the decision will have to be taken when the probability of having an epidemic resurgence is sufficiently low”, pleads the chief resuscitator.
A revival in the fall?
Because with the onset of winter and colder temperatures, conducive to seasonal viruses, specialists warn of a possible epidemic resurgence in the fall. “Nothing excludes that there is not an epidemic upsurge this winter, which could be linked to the Delta variant, to the emergence of new variants, but also to a particularly strong seasonal flu”, continues the professor. “On the other hand, unlike the previous waves, the fourth wave does not lead to a hospital surge, as one might have feared, thanks to the vaccination coverage. We now know that we are able to withstand a fourth wave without suffering too much, without overflowing the hospitals, ”reassures Djillali Annane.
If the situation is slowly improving in France, the pandemic is far from over: “We have never been so close to the end of the pipe, but it is essential that everyone understands that this is not the end of the pandemic, circulation in some countries is so high that the probability of the arrival of new variants or new waves is high, ”admits the professor. It will obviously be necessary to wait a little longer to find the world before, without a mask and without a health pass.