A national vote, but not only that. This Saturday, Slovaks are called to the polls for the second round of the presidential election. A vote focused on Ukraine which illustrates the extent to which the country is torn between two world views. On the one hand, that of Peter Pellegrini, populist president of Parliament, favorable to Russia. On the other, that of Ivan Korcok, pro-Ukrainian diplomat.
Since October 2023 and the arrival as Prime Minister of the populist Robert Fico, the country has turned its back on Ukraine. After having humanly and economically supported its neighbor invaded by Russia, Bratislava is today calling into question the sovereignty of kyiv and making eyes at the Kremlin. “Slovakia is the most polarized state in terms of support for Ukraine, even more than Hungary” governed by the pro-Russian Viktor Orban, assures Romain Le Quiniou, co-founder of Euro Creative.
A “very close” second round
Close to Robert Fico, Peter Pellegrini remains the big favorite of this presidential election. But in the first round, he came second. Ivan Korcok snatched first place with 42.51% of the votes and a five-point lead over his opponent. “The gap is closing like a pocket handkerchief. Even if Peter Pellegrini remains the favorite, the second round will be very close,” predicts Romain Le Quiniou. And added that, in the country, “the populist bloc with a pro-Russian tendency once again faces the pro-EU and pro-Ukrainian democratic bloc”.
“After a year under the leadership of Robert Fico, the Slovaks are perhaps reconsidering their choice a little and wish to show it by voting for a pro-European president,” raises Carole Grimaud, expert at the Geneva Geostrategic Observatory and founder of the Center. research on Russia and Eastern Europe (CREER). So much so that the two candidates to succeed Zuzana Caputova each represent a part of Slovakia.
One country, two voices
Because the country is “polarized on its identity” and wonders: “Am I more Slavic or pro-Western? », explains Romain Le Quiniou. A question revived by disinformation which, according to many experts, has exploded in recent years in Slovakia. “This feeling of closeness with the Russians has certainly been fueled over the past decade and the annexation of Crimea,” explains Carole Grimaud. And while, according to a poll, more than half of Slovaks are convinced that the West or kyiv are responsible for the war in Ukraine, “one can wonder if the formation of this public opinion has not been shaped like modeling clay since 2014,” says the expert.
“Officially, Ivan Korcok’s victory would not change anything, because the president has a ceremonial role in Slovakia, unlike in France. However, the country would have two different voices, particularly on Ukraine,” explains Romain le Quiniou. According to him, this political success would above all allow the pro-Europeans to show that they are capable of overthrowing Robert Fico in the next legislative elections. Carole Grimaud, however, recalls that the Slovak president can “veto certain laws” and, thus, if he wishes, put a spoke in the Prime Minister’s wheels.
An isolated “spoiler”
The results of the presidential election could also have consequences for NATO and the European Union, of which Slovakia has been a member since 2004. By moving into the pro-Russian camp, Slovakia has created “a second dissonant voice in the European Union,” notes Romain le Quiniou. A second voice which could be significantly weakened if, internally, it is politically contested.
“Slovakia does not have a lot of weight, its aid to Ukraine is not decisive, but it is a spoilsport,” he summarizes. NATO and the European Union are also concerned about Bratislava’s proximity to Moscow. “It is obviously a full member of the European Union but since the election of Robert Fico, Slovakia has not been invited to several important meetings concerning Ukraine. Brussels is clearly afraid of a leak of information,” explains Carole Grimaud. Torn between West and East, Bratislava will therefore have to decide this Saturday in which direction – and towards whom – to take a step.