Will the European elections bring a shift to the far right?

A massive strengthening of right-wing parties is expected in the elections to the EU Parliament. But how do the right-wing members of the various countries organize themselves in parliament – and what does that mean for Europe?

There are signs of a shift to the right in the European elections. According to most pre-election surveys in the EU states, right-wing extremist and right-wing populist parties could win a quarter of the seats in the newly elected European Parliament and thus exert a much greater influence on the future course of the EU.

The demand to abolish the EU completely can no longer be heard loudly from any party. The call for a change in the institutions – up to and including an EU without a European Parliament – is, however, loudest from the AfD.

However, the parties that are considered to be on the right-wing fringe have varying degrees of success and cannot be lumped together. The parties, some of which have mutual dislike for one another, are far from having a common strategy.

The voting behavior of the two right-wing populist factions in the European Parliament differs accordingly – for example when it comes to migration or Ukraine.

The two right-wing factions

In the “Fraction of Conservatives and Reformers” (ECR), the former Polish government party PiS with 27 MPs is considered the dominant force. However, the Italian “Fratelli d’Italia”, which is significantly weaker with ten seats and supports Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in the European Parliament, is now more politically influential.

Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban and his Fidesz party are aiming to join the EKR, which currently has a total of 68 MPs and is hoping for a significant increase to up to 80 MPs.

The “Identity and Democracy Group” (ID), however, only has 59 members in the current EU Parliament. They still classify their group to the right of the EKR. The expectation in the ID is to overtake the EKR and have more than 80 members in the new European Parliament.

While the EKR focuses more on economic issues in the election campaign and wants to make the EU “functional again”, the ID pursues a decidedly EU-critical policy – right up to the AfD’s demand to abolish the European Parliament in the long term. In the ID, the Italian “Lega” dominates, followed by the French “Rassemblement National” (“National Assembly”, RN). The nine AfD MPs are also represented here.

Competition or collaboration?

There was great dynamics between the two factions, in terms of content and personnel. Defects from the Italian “Lega” to Meloni’s “Fratelli d’Italia” had weakened the ID and strengthened the EKR faction.

In France, two right-wing extremist parties are fighting for voters’ favor. This is where Eric Zemmour and his party “Reconquete!” hope. (“reconquest”) to move forward – in contrast to his French right-wing competition but in the EKR.

The AfD’s top candidate Maximilian Krah hopes for significantly stronger cooperation after the election: “Both factions are ready for this and want to use their strengths.”

Differences in content

Nevertheless, there are differences in content when it comes to the central topic of immigration: Meloni’s “Fratelli d’Italia” supports the EU migration pact and a better internal distribution of refugees, which is rejected by the Polish PiS and the Hungarian Fidesz as well as by the AfD.

Their relationship with the French RN, in turn, took a hit after a secret AfD meeting in Potsdam became known, at which ideas for a mass deportation of migrants and people with a migration background (“remigration”) were formulated. Marine le Pen from the RN and Meloni reacted with surprise because they want to win more centrist voters with moderate tones. The AfD now says that the relationship with the RN is better again.

The competition between right-wing populist parties within France, Belgium and Italy further complicates a possible agreement or unification of the two right-wing factions in the European Parliament.

The topic of Russia

The proximity of some parties to Russia could act as an additional divisive factor. The AfD, the French RN, but also the FPÖ in Austria are positioning themselves with a Russia-friendly strategy, while the Polish PiS, for example, wants nothing to do with it.

MPs from right-wing factions are also said to have been bribed for policies favorable to Russia. However, the Belgian prosecutors investigating the case have not yet backed up the accusation with any concrete sums or names and are said to be based primarily on intelligence information from Poland and the Czech Republic.

The arrest of an employee of the AfD’s top candidate Krah for suspected Chinese espionage increased the mutual distrust between the two right-wing factions in the middle of the election campaign. Previously, another AfD MP was suspected of having received money from an online portal close to Russia. The case is putting a strain on the AfD election campaign – but could also have an impact on other parties if the Belgian investigative authorities come up with new details.

“The EU will cope with a stronger right, and it will have to do so,” expects political scientist Matthias Dembinski from the Leibnitz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research. “An example is Giorgia Meloni in Italy, who, under the pressure of the war in Ukraine, switched to a Europe-friendly and pragmatic course.” It can also be seen in the joint resolutions on future migration policy – “and not just there”.