In Nord-Pas-de-Calais, the other country of fries after Belgium, we are always a little worried about the fluctuation in the price of potatoes. Especially since recently, the value per kilo of this precious tuber tended to skyrocket without falling too much, even exceeding the price of 2 euros last July, a threshold never reached. However, if there are many cyclical causes for the increase in the price of potatoes, some also recognize the influence of a sort of speculative bubble.
According to INSEE, between October 2022 and October 2023, the average retail price of ware potatoes increased from 1.68 euros per kilo to 2.01 euros per kilo. An increase of more than 19%. But what happened during this year to explain this? In fact, if we observe a graph of the price evolution of the kilo of potato over the last ten years, we notice a sawtooth curve with nevertheless an overall increase of almost 18%. Each year, this happens between June and October, with prices skyrocketing in summer without ever falling back to their spring level.
“The increase will continue, probably not of the same magnitude”
It’s the same scenario that played out last summer. “Spring was complicated, because we had to wait for the frost to end, and when that happened, it started raining non-stop,” explains to 20 minutes a source in the trade who prefers not to be cited. In July, producers took the traditional samples from the fields to assess the future yield: “it was catastrophic because it showed that the yields were going to be very low, so everyone tried to cover their backs and the prices blazed,” continues our source. Except that what followed had a few surprises in store: “the weather was rather mild and the plants grew very quickly, in a short time, to finally give yields which were very good and the speculative bubble calmed down”. As we can see, the INSEE indicator went from 2.19 euros per kilo in August to 2.01 euros in October.
“The increase will continue, probably not to the same extent, but the price of potatoes will increase structurally,” recognizes Geoffroy Dévry, president of the National Union of Potato Producers (UNPT). More restrictive French regulations on phytosanitary products, fertilizer prices quadrupled, soaring energy prices, falling yields… “So many factors directly impacting production costs,” deplores the boss of the UNPT.
To this, we must also add climatic hazards “the risk of which is not integrated into the purchase price by industry or mass distribution”, he insists. The UNPT also notes a “lower attractiveness” of the potato, particularly in the “fresh” variety to cook at home. Because the product suffers from an image that is not necessarily “healthy” linked to its preparation in restaurants. A mistake for our well-informed source, who praises the properties of a “steamed or boiled” potato. And even if we make a big deal out of a price which has increased by 24% in one year, it remains, according to her, “one of the most affordable foods”.