Will Marine Le Pen hold the shock in the race for the Elysee?

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So far, everything has been fine. Rather favorable polls, a fluctuating number of members but sufficient to hit the mark in the face of the scarcity of certain left-wing parties, and a strategy of “normalization” of the National Rally which seemed effective. Well, that was before. Before Valérie Pécresse’s victory in the Les Républicains primary, on December 4. Before, also and above all, the official entry of polemicist Eric Zemmour into the political arena, on November 30.

Since then, Marine Le Pen, who was in a good position in the polls, just behind Emmanuel Macron, was blown away by the candidate LR. And is followed by the candidate of Reconquest who does not hesitate
to tackle the former president of the RN. Bad news for the frontist, to which is added
difficulties in bringing together the 500 sponsorships essential to stand for the presidential election.

Declining voting intentions, a weakened candidacy

“This is the first time under the Fifth Republic that we have two extreme right-wing candidates. And which, according to polls, could both make more than 10% ”, analysis Nicolas lebourg, historian and researcher at CEPEL * at the University of Montpellier, specialist in the far right. A deal that upsets the order established by Jean-Marie Le Pen, whose daughter is, since 2012, not used to having to share the poster.

Because, in the polls, Eric Zemmour mechanically lowers the RN candidate. Result: the ivoting intentions that had been
credited alone in 2016, now divide in two. “Eric Zemmour’s candidacy is all the more reshuffling the cards for Marine Le Pen, as he positions himself on the two things pointed out by the National Gathering in its attempt to demonize: World War II and anti-Semitism, and ethnic and racial questions, analysis Nicolas Lebourg. Of course, that allowed the RN to progress electorally. Except that there is someone who comes to disrupt everything! “.

“It is impossible that one of the two is elected”

Little consolation for Marine Le Pen: if Eric Zemmour has stolen part of his staff, and definitely a few voters, he’s not playing in the same court. The polemicist has in fact preferred to woo the bourgeoisie, while the frontist retains a more popular historic and loyal electorate. To each his share of the pie, therefore. “Marine Le Pen has had a very structured line for several years, around full sovereignty. The problem is that this line was very good in the first rounds of the elections, but it lost the second rounds because we lost the seniors and the CSP +. Those same who, today, are tempted by Eric Zemmour ”, explains the researcher.

Still, in the polls, neither of the two far-right candidates is given, for the time being, a winner in the presidential election. ” According to the latest figures, about 72% of people totally excluded from voting for Eric Zemmour in the first or second round. And 69% of people say they won’t vote for Marine Le Pen in the first or second round. So it is at time T, of course. But with that, it is impossible for one of the two to be elected, ”says Nicolas Lebourg. Figures which could nevertheless evolve, the current candidates being, for the moment, only simple suitors awaiting their sponsorships.

In the meantime, the candidate of the National Rally must present her entire program on January 15, 2022, in Reims. And has already announced that she was ready to meet “all the presidential candidates” to debate with them, including Eric Zemmour.

Center for Political and Social Studies

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