After successive failures in world football and rugby, France finally established itself as the world champion of economic pessimism. At least one Cup that we take home. Always a good thing, even if the “feat” becomes banal: France has been dominating this competition head and shoulders for a long time.
Far from being a cliché, pessimism is in fact a sport where the Frenchman is almost unbeatable. Since the launch of the survey in 2012 Predictions from Ipsos* – which assesses the expectations of the population of the 33 most developed nations in the world for the coming year – “the French are more pessimistic and negative than other countries”, smiles Ben Page, general director of Ipsos. And this year again, despite long-toothed opponents, the Frenchman will have beaten the competition: only 46% of the country thinks that 2024 will be better than 2023, compared to 70% on the world average.
The most pessimistic France but not the worst off
The same goes for a supposed economic rebound, in which only 33% of French people believe, compared to 50% on the world average. Each time, France is penultimate, just before Japan, the main opponent not really known for its joie de vivre either. But on penalties, we beat the Japanese to the wire with the fear that artificial intelligence will ruin many jobs. The French say they are three times more worried than the Japanese on this point. The same goes for pessimism about better pay for women, where we find ourselves dead last, with no competition.
However, and this is the paradox, the country is far from having the worst situation. The Banque de France forecasts annual inflation of 5.8% in 2023, compared to 6.59% for the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) average. Annual growth will be positive and similar to the European Union average, which is not the case for example for Germany or the British, undermined by zero or negative growth. However, these Nations are much more optimistic than us about the future (57% of Germans and 64% of Britons are confident).
Depression and romanticism 100% tricolor
Results which do not surprise Philippe Crevel, economist and director of the savings circle: “When it comes to the economy, there has always been a certain French depressive side. We are one of the most developed welfare states in the world, which necessarily increases expectations and the feeling of injustice. We always have the impression that our neighbor receives more aid than us from the State, creating jealousy and negativity. »
Be careful, one cliché can hide another. French depression can be explained by… the romanticism so dear to our homeland. For Ben Page, “most French people refer to a past that they tend to idealize, like the ”30 Glorieuses”. These years seem to them to have been synonymous with progress while ours are those of problems and polycrises: climatic, geopolitical, economic…” A very outdated vision which causes many winter depressions when imagining 2024. “Because of this very deep nostalgia, there is a difficulty in projecting oneself into the future,” continues Philippe Crevel.
Lack of knowledge and mistrust
Quite a few fantasies that the director of the Savings Circle attributes to ignorance. The opportunity to see Robert Zuili, psychologist specializing in emotions and author of The power of links (Edition Mango, 2023), take his turn at France’s bedside: “Faced with the unknown or concepts that we do not master, we prefer not to invest too much in positive emotions and to be naturally defiant. This prevents us from being disappointed. Due to this lack of knowledge of the economy, we only retain negative information – inflation, poor unemployment forecasts for 2024…”.
Proof of this lack of knowledge, the French “are much more optimistic about their personal economic or private situation, which they know much better than about the overall situation of the country,” notes Philippe Crevel.
And the spirit of the times does not help, concludes Ben Page: “The French are distinguished by the feeling that globalization is a threat to their country, while France is a key player in the world economy, with by example of banks and companies that succeed internationally. They are convinced that France is unique, referring to General de Gaulle, even before…”. Really unbeatable for complaining, we tell you.