The adage is well known: “You have to strike while the iron is hot”. Therefore, the decision of the inter-union, Thursday, to choose the date of March 23, in a week, for the ninth day of strike against the pension reform may surprise. An impression reinforced by the manifest anger of part of the population a few hours after the government’s decision to use 49.3 to pass its bill. Demonstrations took place across the country, roundabouts were – and still are – occupied, roads blocked and cars set on fire. And do it again this Friday. So why don’t the unions capitalize on this “momentum” and wait seven long days?
Because a big strike is on the way
Be careful not to confuse speed with precipitation. “If they want to succeed in their demonstration, they need a minimum of time to mobilize as many people as possible. Giving yourself seven days to organize a successful and effective rally is not surprising, it’s a very correct time, ”said Guy Groux, sociologist specializing in trade unionism at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po (Cevipof).
We can already eliminate this Friday, with a 49.3 decided yesterday at 3:20 p.m. Monday also jumps, because a strong mobilization can hardly be organized during the weekend, many union members being also parents. And beyond the preparations, “legal deadlines of five days are sometimes necessary for strike notices”, continues a union source questioned by 20 minutes.
Because the strike requires a strategic day
You may have noticed that most days of strong mobilization take place on a Tuesday or a Thursday. And this is not due to chance, but to the need to be as many as possible. Fridays and Mondays are therefore often banned, because workers may have taken their holidays for long weekends. Ditto for weekends or Wednesdays, seen as potential childcare days. Thus, the demonstration of Wednesday March 15, however decisive on the eve of the ballot in the National Assembly, had brought together half as many people – whatever the source (unions and police) – than that of Tuesday March 7.
However, the next day of mobilization promises to be decisive after this 49.3, and the number of demonstrators will be scrutinized very closely. This explains the choice of Thursday rather than Tuesday, continues the union source: “at the slightest drop in numbers, the movement is accused of running out of steam. Leaving until Thursday to remobilize seems more judicious than doing too quickly on Tuesday, and seeing potential demonstrators not coming. We must avoid that the big days are too close together »
Because the vote on the motions of censure will have taken place
“It is normal to wait for the day of Monday, when the vote on the motions of no confidence against the government must take place, to pass. If the government falls, it still changes a lot of things, ”says Guy Groux. Admittedly, these motions have little chance of succeeding, “but each mobilization requires clear objectives. There, there is too much blur between now and Monday. »
Because things will still happen by then
“Proximity actions” are already planned for this Saturday, March 18, recalls Joël Sohier, lecturer at the University of Reims, author of Trade unionism in France (Explicit’, 2010). By opting for this system, the unions avoid too complex and therefore time-consuming management, the gatherings being isolated from each other. A mode of action which “also makes it possible to increase the pressure and to activate the mobilization little by little for Thursday everywhere on the territory, with actions closer to the people”, continues Guy Groux.
Several National Education unions are also calling for continued mobilization, including the strike of supervisors during the baccalaureate specialty tests, between Monday and Wednesday. SNCF traffic also promises to be disrupted in the coming days. “Not to mention the blockages in the oil depots, the garbage collectors’ strikes, with unions supported by their confederations”, continues Joël Sohier. This is confirmed by the trade union source quoted above: “There is a desire to leave maximum independence to local actions which want to pursue continuous mobilization”. In short, the country will not run quite normally in the coming days. “The guard is not lifted”, summarizes Joël Sohier.
Because there is little chance that the soufflé will fall by then
Given the anger expressed since Thursday evening, unfavorable opinions in the polls and previous mobilizations – the largest since 1995 – there is little chance that the pressure will fall in a week. All the more reason not to rush: “We are in a major social crisis and in a process leading to a general strike, attests Joël Sohier. This process needs strong moments to succeed, and the unions know they are eagerly awaited. The pressure is also on them. Thursday could be a decisive step towards this general strike”. Same opinion from the union source: “Next Thursday, we are aiming for something big”. Rather than strike the iron while it is hot, the unions therefore prefer to make it the most powerful weapon possible.