Do the French no longer want to reproduce? In any case, there are fewer and fewer little babies being born. This decline is further confirmed for 2023, according to the latest figures from INSEE published on Thursday. Between January and November 2023, the number of births fell by 6.8% in France compared to the same period the previous year. The birth rate could then reach a new historic low for the whole year.
A historic step backwards
There are 45,000 fewer births in the first eleven months of 2023 compared to 2022, 621,691 births specifies the National Institute of Statistics. The year 2022 saw the birth of 726,000 babies in France, a number down 2.2% compared to 2021. This was already the lowest number of births since the end of the Second World War. Since 2011, the number of births has fallen each year in France, with the exception of 2021, which saw a slight rebound after the confinements linked to Covid-19.
In the month of November 2023 alone, 56,297 babies were born, or 5.1% less than a year earlier. This is the 17th consecutive month of decline, when compared month by month to the same period of the previous year, specifies INSEE. This drop in births over eleven months between 2022 and 2023 is observed in all regions, without exception: it is 8.4% in Corsica and Normandy, 7.7% in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes or even 5.6 % in Ile-de-France.
Demographic and cyclical factors
To explain this decline, INSEE highlights a demographic factor: the number of women aged 20 to 40, i.e. of childbearing age, has decreased. Additionally, smaller generations of women have fewer children, perhaps due to social factors. “To start a family, you have to have hope. However, the younger generations are perhaps more worried about their future,” comments Catherine Scornet, lecturer at the University of Aix-Marseille, to AFP.
The uncertain economic situation, marked by high inflation, the context of war in Ukraine and the Middle East as well as global warming thus create a “climate of uncertainty” which can slow down the desire to have a child, adds- she said.
The demographic sociologist also notes changes in aspirations: some decide to have fewer or no children at all for “libertarian reasons”, linked to “individual emancipation”. They prefer to remain free to prioritize other projects. “Graduated women are those who project themselves the most outside of motherhood, they invest themselves and flourish in other personal or professional areas,” explains Catherine Scornet.
Consequences not necessarily negative
A change in the structure of the population requires States to adapt their public policies. Firstly, the presence of a smaller number of children has a “positive” effect on public finances since it means “less spending on education, care and allowances”, said the AFP Hippolyte d’Albis, professor at the Paris School of Economics. The country can then invest in other areas.
The situation can become more complex when these generations reach adulthood: the share of the active population, on which the “dynamics of an economy and the balance of social accounts” depend, risks decreasing. “We can, however, use other levers to increase the active population: for example, promoting the employment of seniors, women or resorting to immigration,” adds the economist. Today, the active population represents some 40% of the total population in France.
Make parents’ lives easier
Demographers believe that there is a link between pronatalist measures and fertility but that it remains difficult to measure. Currently, the question of balancing professional and family life is a key element. “Effective public policies are those that make life easier for parents. Thus, people who are hesitant to take the plunge and have a child see that it does not imply an insurmountable sacrifice,” Laurent Toulemon, research director at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) told AFP. .
On the other hand, pronatalist measures which consist of giving a financial bonus at the time of a birth remain ineffective. “People know that having children involves long-term expenses,” underlines the demographer.
Note: there is an issue of “trust” and “credibility” of the proposed measures. In France, where fertility remains relatively high, there has been a “solid” family policy for decades. In South Korea, despite a proactive policy, fertility remains low. “Women know that they will still have to make enormous sacrifices to raise children, due to social norms,” notes Laurent Toulemon.