While Evgueni Prigojine was buried discreetly on Tuesday, after being the victim of a plane crash on August 23, a question haunts observers of Russia. What will become of the nebula built by this former restaurateur, whose mercenaries have been or are deployed in Ukraine, Syria or even the Central African Republic? 20 minutes asked the question to Dimitri Zufferey, research journalist for RTS (Swiss Radio and Television) and member of the “All Eyes on Wagner” collective. He is co-author with Lou Osborn of the book Wagner, investigation at the heart of the Prigojine systemto be published on September 15 by Faubourg editions.
Yevgeny Prigozhin was buried privately in St. Petersburg on Tuesday. Did that surprise you?
Not really. The accident of his plane suggests that he had become a form of “pariah”. And so whoever, today, appears to be a fan or moved by Prigojine, especially someone with a little power, risks being perceived by the Kremlin as being a potential source of nuisance.
The disappearance of Yevgueni Prigojine and his numbers two and three in this crash does not mean the end of Russian paramilitary activities. As you point out in the book, other societies exist and could perhaps step in and resume paramilitary activities. You thus cite Convoy and Redut.
Exactly, the concept, the label, the brand, I don’t know what is the best term to use today, has become an indispensable tool for Russian power. It’s a tool of plausible deniability, an extremely practical tool that makes it possible to send, I was going to say at a lower cost, experienced soldiers while having the possibility that it is them, that there is a Russian application. The big question today, and no one really has an answer, is what will take over from Wagner? I say willingly and voluntarily the “What is? because already, we don’t know what structure [peut le faire]. And after, who to replace Evgueni Prigojine? Today, in the ranks of Wagner, it’s a bit of a parody of the title of the France 2 game, “Everyone wants to take their place”. There, it’s a bit like “Nobody wants to take their place”, because you have to be charismatic, you have to be able to set up networks like never before, to ensure a sacred source of financing to pay for the equipment and armament, and then, you have to please the Kremlin.
Wagner is not a single entity. In the book you write that there are about 600 companies that are linked to Prigojine. You call this system a “hydra”.
Of these 600 companies, Prigojine has pushed the concept of nebula to the maximum to make its structure as impalpable, as untouchable as possible. We must remember that Wagner is not a structure, but just a kind of label. For example, mercenaries based in Syria are employees of Evro Polis, which is a company specializing in oil extraction. So there really isn’t that connection [avec Wagner].
Having no real expertise in Russian inheritance law, we must also see that there is Mrs. Prigojine who can inherit part of the crumbs of what remains. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s empire was definitely not just mercenary or influence or economic predation, there were completely normal activities. We must not forget that Prigozhin originally sold hot dogs in St. Petersburg, then was active in the catering [des activités de traiteur] and in catering
Did he keep this restoration activity?
This activity, Concord holding today, still exists. Evgueni Prigozhin has exploited to the maximum the capacities to obtain public calls for tenders coming from the Russian administration. And thanks to these abilities, he managed to make quite a lot of money, to meet a lot of people in the Kremlin. It’s a huge networking job [réseau]. Today, whoever will succeed in the role of Evgueni Prigojine must also be able to navigate between the different circles of the Kremlin.
You just mentioned Prigozhin’s influence activity. Margarita Symonian, the leader of RT, has shown particular interest in this part of the Wagner empire. Can we imagine a division, with a takeover by Russian state media of this part of the empire?
There is already a part, the Patriot Media holding, which has already been partly dismantled and assigned to others. Then there’s the Internet Research Agency, all those think tanks that are also a bit informal that we mention [dans le livre], such as the Foundation for the Protection of National Values. All these structures, we don’t really know what will happen to them. All the same, they are used to functioning under a private direction, with strengths, a course and an ideal such as Prigojine saw it. But it definitely seems impossible for companies like Convoy or Redut to be able to provide all the services offered by the Wagner nebula.
What will become of Wagner’s activities and in Africa? In the book, you mention a visit by a Russian minister to Libya. Are there any new clues that have emerged in recent days about who wants to take over from Wagner in Africa?
Regaining control is precisely today the question that has no real answer. We are approaching August 31*. Normally, the salaries of these five to ten thousand mercenaries should soon be paid. Who will pay them? No idea. There are many discussions which indicate that there is a will, in any case, to regain control on the part of the Kremlin. Is it to take matters directly at the risk of creating human and material needs in Mali or in the Central African Republic or in Libya for the Russian army, this seems difficult given the Russian difficulties in Ukraine
The uncertainty is whether those who fought until August 23 for Wagner, do they still feel, since August 24, legitimately Wagnerian, or are they ready to change chief ? We must not forget that they are mercenaries. They should be able to fight for who pays them, this is the historical image of the mercenary. But Prigozhin was still a very charismatic and fascinating figure for these men. For Africa, there are a lot of uncertainties, since there are a lot of technical issues. Today, concerning Ukraine, it seems definitively established that Wagner has left the country. There is even talk of dismantling the Wagner base in Belarus.
Have you observed this dismantling on mapping software?
On the last images that I could see, it would suggest that there is no reinforcement [de la présence des mercenaires]. But today, overall, that’s the question, Wagner’s men, which leaders will they follow? Because if these 15,000 mercenaries [déployés dans le monde] all decide to return home, there is a problem in the continuation of the mercenary activities of these Russian paramilitaries: Wagner recruited the most trained and trained soldiers who also have a good knowledge of the terrain. The recruitment pool is not infinitely expandable. And these paramilitaries need to continue working.
What do we know about the prisoners who signed up for Prigozhin in exchange for a promise of early release?
Those, it would seem that they opted more for the solution of survival, that is to say that after their six months, the vast majority of them returned home. Not to mention the immeasurable mass of those who died. That is the first category of prisoners that we must not forget, despite everything. The second went home and it seems, but it is not completely confirmed, that some have extended and that some have been seen in Ukraine.
*The interview was conducted on August 30.