At the meeting of EU foreign ministers on Monday, the main focus was on one topic: Russia’s military deployment on Ukraine’s borders. Annalena Baerbock complained that Moscow was playing a “really irresponsible game”. The German foreign minister and her colleagues did not discuss the details of the threatened punitive measures, but their main features are becoming increasingly clear.
What sanctions is the EU planning?
Ursula von der Leyen spoke on Sunday evening in the ARD of “massive consequences” in the event of a Russian attack and a “big package of sanctions”. In this way, Russia would be “in principle cut off from the international financial markets”. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson threatened that Russian companies would then no longer be able to do business in pounds and dollars. According to von der Leyen, the West would impose an export embargo: the allies would no longer supply the goods and technologies that Russia “urgently needs to modernize and diversify its economy” away from oil, gas and coal production . It could also affect the Russian aircraft and telecommunications industry.
The Commission drafted the package in close consultation with partners such as the USA. The authority gives few details because they want to keep Moscow in the dark – and fear that EU governments will otherwise talk this out publicly. Because in the EU, foreign policy decisions require unanimity. The EU has already in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea, imposed sanctions on Russia. Entry bans were imposed on officials, and their assets in the EU were frozen.
After which event would the sanctions package be decided, what would the procedure be?
It is agreed that penalties will be launched if the Russian army invades Ukrainian territory. “As long as the tanks don’t roll,” says US Secretary of State Tony Blinken, attempts are being made to change President Vladimir Putin’s mind. It remains unclear how the EU and its partners will react if this threshold is not crossed. Are there consequences if cyber attacks occur, Ukraine’s power supply is paralyzed, or the fighting between the “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk and the Ukrainian army escalates, but Russian troops do not invade?
The fact that people in Brussels are reluctant to talk about this is not only because they don’t want to tell Putin everything in advance. Imposing sanctions is a highly political decision that is difficult to plan ahead of an invasion – and too open a discussion could jeopardize cohesion. What is clear, however, is that the legal texts are almost ready and the Commission could present them “within a short time” to the Member States so that they can adopt them. It’s more a matter of hours than days.
While the European External Action Service is responsible for selecting individuals for account freezes or entry bans, the Commission has prepared the measures for individual sectors. Since the member states would feel the sanctions differently, the authority is also considering compensation. In addition to the neighbors Finland, Lithuania and Poland, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands are likely to be particularly affected. who do a lot of trade with Russia. It remains unclear what penalties Russia would impose in return.
Why have there not yet been sanctions, as Ukraine is demanding?
It was intended as a sign of solidarity that the 27 EU foreign ministers met with Kiev’s chief diplomat, Dmitro Kuleba. He thanked him by demanding that “at least some sanctions be imposed.” Support came only from Lithuania, whose Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told reporters: “We don’t have to wait for an attack. I can tell you that Ukraine is already under attack.” The Austrian Alexander Schallenberg took the opposite position: he emphasized that sanctions were “a kind of punishment” for the EU. One must continue to rely on diplomacy, the moment for sanctions has not yet come.
What about the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and the Swift payment system?
Von der Leyen was critical of the pipe that runs from Russia through the Baltic Sea to Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on ARD. The project could increase Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, she warned. However, at the moment it is not your EU authority, but the Federal Network Agency that is responsible for approval. US President Joe Biden demands that Berlin must stop Nord Stream 2 in the event of an attack on Ukraine.
Also sensitive is the question of how Russia is to be cut off from the financial system. The most radical option would be to decouple the country from Swift. This is the acronym for a secure communication system for transfers used by more than 11,000 banks, stock exchanges and financial service providers in 210 countries. Most recently, however, it was said that Swift would not be part of the sanctions package. Reuters reported Monday that Washington wants to ban US banks from handling transactions for major Russian lenders.