overview
The world’s political elite is meeting in Munich for the security conference for the 60th time. What are the main issues given the tense world situation? Who comes? And what can we expect from the meeting? An overview.
Around 800 participants are on the long list of the Munich Security Conference. One is not noted. And yet, as the “white elephant in the room” so to speak, he will have a significant influence on the discussions in Munich. This means Donald Trump.
Since the former US President questioned the global security architecture with just a few words a week ago, there has been unrest among NATO member states. During a campaign appearance, Trump said that as president he would not provide military support to NATO members who were in default. If everything is not wrong, the unrest about this statement will also be felt in the conference hotel “Bayerischer Hof”. The main focus will be on three points.
stability of the West military alliance
Firstly, it will be about the stability of NATO. What is it worth if the USA, the most important member state, ties military assistance to payment practices? That’s what Trump said a week ago and not for the first time. In 2018, when he was US President, he also said in an interview that he would not want to defend Montenegro.
The head of the security conference, Christoph Heusgen, advocates not getting excited about discussing the words of the former and perhaps future US president. Rather, the other states would have to do their homework. Which leads to the next point.
height of Defense spending
Secondly, the level of defense spending by individual NATO member states will become an issue. Germany, which has long missed the goal of spending two percent of its gross domestic product on defense, will meet this NATO commitment in 2024. And it should stay that way in the following years, as Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Chancellor Olaf Scholz always emphasize. However, the question of how financing can be guaranteed remains unanswered. What is being discussed is whether to significantly increase the Bundeswehr’s special assets to the amount of 100 billion euros or to suspend the rules of the debt brake for defense spending.
One more independent European Defense policy?
Thirdly, there is the question of a more independent European defense policy. The consensus is that Europe must do more to improve its own defense capability, regardless of the outcome of the election in the USA. However, there are different ideas about what this should look like. Shortly before the security conference, the discussion about Europe’s own nuclear shield arose. Heusgen explicitly speaks out against a European “nuclear power”. On the one hand, this is incompatible with the nuclear non-proliferation treaties, and on the other hand, he doesn’t even want to imagine what European security would look like without the American protective umbrella.
Concern about the loss of US aid to Ukraine
The central issue will once again be the war of aggression against Ukraine. Two years ago, the Ukrainian president made a memorable and emotional appearance at the security conference: “We will be forgotten,” complained Volodymyr Zelensky four days before the Russian attack on his country. He campaigned vehemently for security guarantees and immediately rushed back to Kiev after his speech. He is also expected in person in Munich this year.
His appeal for support has become more urgent. Ukraine lacks weapons and ammunition. Russia is sometimes five times superior here. In addition, a US support package worth around $60 billion was approved by the Senate this week. The Republican-dominated House of Representatives could reject it – and so far it looks like it will. Europe, in turn, would not be able to fill this gap.
In addition to Zelensky, the Europeans will also use the opportunity in Munich to lobby Republican senators and representatives to support Ukraine. Nowhere outside the USA can you find as many US representatives in one place as at the Munich Security Conference.
Heusgen: Enge forces participants to start talking
Politics will be discussed on the public podiums at the Munich Security Conference. But politics also takes place on the upper floors of the hotel, which are inaccessible to the public. Numerous bilateral meetings will take place, sometimes resembling political speed dating. “You can’t imagine how many legitimate requests we had to turn down for reasons of space,” says Heusgen, who still doesn’t want to move the conference to an even larger venue because everyone in the “Bayerischer Hof” hotel would be forced to do so because of the limited space to talk to each other.
Last but not least, the motto of the conference is: “Peace through dialogue”. No Russian or Iranian government representatives have been invited for three years. According to conference leader Heusgen, Russia must first return to “civilization” and recognize Ukraine as a state. They don’t want to roll out a red carpet for Iran, which supports both Hamas and the Houthi rebels.
Until Thursday, the German Foreign Minister was in Israel on her fifth visit to the Middle East since the Hamas attack on Israel. In Munich she will continue her efforts for a humanitarian ceasefire and the release of more Israeli hostages – together with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and others. Israeli President Izchak Herzog and Foreign Minister Israel Katz are announced, as is the Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority, Mohammed Shtayyeh. Representatives from Qatar and Egypt are expected. They often play a mediating role in the war between Israel and Hamas.
What role will China play?
The Chinese foreign politician Wang Yi’s announcement last year in Munich that he was launching a “peace initiative” for Ukraine came as a surprise. Shortly before, China’s state and party leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin had described themselves as “best friends”. The doubts about the seriousness of this initiative were not only confirmed, but China subsequently demonstrated its siding with Russia: Chinese companies sold combat-capable drones and other weapons components to Russia. In addition, both China and India have been buying oil and natural gas from Russia on a large scale since the beginning of the war.
Now Yi, who has been Foreign Minister again since summer 2023, will appear again in Munich this weekend. According to Janka Oertel, Asia expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, he will deny that his country supports the Russian government so strongly. In this way, Yi wants to regain the peace narrative. At the same time, it has recently been noted that China is courting investors and appearing more open due to its recent difficult economic development.
This does not mean that China is becoming more willing to compromise on the Taiwan issue, for example. Beijing sees the island as its own territory and is threatening war to assert its claims. The US election in November also plays an important role here. Because under a US President Trump, American protection for Taiwan could be at stake.
Security conference in transition
For years, the former “Wehrkundetagung” has developed into a global discussion forum. Today the conference is proud to host a diverse conference. The concept of security has long been expanded. It’s not just about military security, but about cross-cutting issues such as climate security, food and health security, economic security. This year, more representatives from countries in the “Global South” are expected than ever before.