In the middle of an election year in the United States, the death of three American soldiers in a drone attack attributed to pro-Iranian groups in Jordan takes on a particularly political dimension. Accused by Donald Trump of being “weak” in the face of Tehran, Joe Biden promised “consequent” retaliation on Monday, while assuring via an advisor that Washington is not “seeking war” head-on with Iran.
The US president met with senior officials on Monday to discuss the situation, including Jake Sullivan, his National Security Advisor, Brett McGurk, his Middle East advisor and his Defense Minister LLoyd Austin. “Have no doubt: we will hold all those responsible accountable, when and how we want,” he warned the day before, accusing groups “supported by Iran” of being behind the strike. Here are the main options available to Joe Biden.
Intensification of strikes against pro-Iran groups in Iraq and Syria
Since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas on October 7, pro-Iran armed groups have fired rockets and used drones against the troops of Washington and the international anti-jihadist coalition, who have suffered more than 165 attacks, a direct repercussion of the war in Gaza between Israel, Washington’s ally, and Palestinian Hamas, supported by Tehran.
In retaliation for attacks on its personnel, Washington has already carried out several strikes in Iraq and Syria against fighters from pro-Iran armed groups. Just like in Yemen where bombings targeted positions of the Houthi rebels, who target international maritime traffic off the coast of Yemen. Washington should logically intensify its response by “proxy”. The United States retains around 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria, as part of a system intended to fight against a possible resurgence of the Islamic State (IS) group.
Uncertainty over strikes in Iran
“I don’t expect the president to hit Iran directly,” responds 20 minutes Reuel Gerecht, analyst at the think-tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “The American administration seems paralyzed by the fear of a new ‘eternal war’,” judges this former CIA officer. But according to him, “simply attacking Iranian interests and its allies” in the region “risks not having a deterrent effect”
Among the potential targets in Iran: drone or missile manufacturing sites. According to New York TimesWashington has also had in its pipeline since 2015 an operation called “Nitro Zeus” which would be capable of rendering Iranian anti-aircraft defenses out of service and severely damaging its communications systems and its electricity network via cyberattacks.
But even after eliminating General Qassem Soleimani, head of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, in a strike near Baghdad airport in 2020, the Trump administration refrained from striking Iran on his territory. Particularly in the face of the risk of general conflagration and an Iranian response against Israel.