Is peace possible between Azerbaijan and Armenia? Seven months after the total resumption of control of the secessionist region of Nagorno-Karabakh, tension remains on the ground, with armed incidents sometimes breaking out. But Baku and Yerevan also send more peaceful signals, being “ closer than ever » of an agreement, announced the Azerbaijani president on Tuesday April 23, in particular thanks to progress on the delimitation of borders.
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With our regional correspondent, Régis Genté
These advances on the borders are a very good sign, even if for the moment, it is the winner who imposes his conditions. The Azerbaijani armed forces still occupy more than 200 km2 of Armenian territory since 2022, and they show no desire to leave.
Regular clashes at the border still break out sporadically, including one which left four Armenians dead in mid-February. But the context makes some people involved in the peace discussions say that the hope of signing a treaty exists.
Real tensions, but face-to-face discussions
The tensions are real, but there is hardly any peace process that does not involve this: we cannot put an end in a few months to more than a century of conflicts and hatred, including the 1915 Armenian genocide. part.
But the two governments talk to each other. This means that for people who are very involved in the issue, peace remains in sight, or at least remains a possibility.
According to our information, Azerbaijani presidential adviser Hikmet Hajiyev and the head of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigorian are to meet again. This after multiple discreet meetings between the two parties in various countries. According to diplomats who attend these meetings, there is real work between the two men: progress on certain points, setbacks on others.
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Obstacles also geopolitical
But many obstacles to a peace agreement remain, of several kinds. Some are intrinsic to the Azerbaijani-Armenian relationship. This is the case of the delimitation of borders, the withdrawal of Azerbaijani forces from the 200 km2 that they occupy in Armenia.
The second set of obstacles relates to the geopolitical context, the complexity of which has worsened with the war in Ukraine. Major geopolitical players defend their interests in the Caucasus: Russia, Türkiye, Iran and the West. Everyone is opposed on this ground: in 2023, Brussels and Moscow each tried to sponsor negotiations, without success.
From now on, Armenia is trying to diversify its geopolitical partnerships, considering that its great ally, Russia, abandoned it in its conflict with Azerbaijan.
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