SIsrael’s large-scale ground offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been underway for more than a month. On Friday it was interrupted by an initial four-day ceasefire, which was extended on Monday until Thursday morning. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also said that fighting would resume after the ceasefire. After the end of the agreement, the country will “fulfill its war goals.”
Thousands of Israeli soldiers are deployed in Gaza. Their goal is to “destroy” the terrorist group Hamas after its attack on Israel on October 7, as Netanyahu has said. Estimates range from 30,000 to more than 40,000 Israeli soldiers operating in Gaza. That would only be a small proportion of Israel’s total forces, which consist of around 170,000 active soldiers and another 460,000 reservists.
Since the end of October, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have gradually advanced and northern Gaza is now largely under their control. The army says it has divided Gaza into two parts, north and south. Before the ceasefire, Israel was apparently preparing an offensive in the south. The army called on the population to move to a “safety zone” in the southwest where no major fighting was expected.
Does the ceasefire benefit Hamas?
“The Israeli army has achieved significant successes so far,” said Kobi Michael, a military analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University. Hamas’ most important military structures are in the north of the Gaza Strip – and the army is close to successfully completing the mission there, even if there are still Hamas members in Jabalia or Beit Hanun. Israel was also able to collect important intelligence information, including from the more than 300 captured Hamas fighters. But: “The army still has a long way to go,” says Michael. An offensive in the south would be somewhat more difficult than in the north due to the large number of refugees. Hamas’ military facilities are probably located east of Rafah and Khan Yunis. This infrastructure must be destroyed in order to render the terrorist group harmless.
Israel’s advance in the Gaza Strip
The ceasefire, on the other hand, primarily benefits Hamas, says Michael. She was able to recover from the fighting and collect weapons, ammunition, fuel and supplies. At the same time, the interruption gave her time to do better research. During the break, some of the Israeli soldiers remained in Gaza, while others returned to Israel to recover or train.
According to Steven Höfner, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ramallah, Palestine, the Israeli offensive has progressed faster than many expected. Their speed is “remarkable” and indicates that the army planned its ground offensive “very precisely and very specifically.” This also explains the relatively long preparation time after October 7th. On the other hand, communication among individual Hamas fighters and groups did not work well. This is one of the reasons why battle groups quickly disbanded during the fighting. “The command structures within Hamas have not proven effective,” says Höfner. This is also because Israel had already eliminated several commanders and high-ranking fighters through air strikes in the run-up to the offensive. “This was an effective approach to weaken Hamas communicatively in order to then exploit these weaknesses in the ground operation.”
The advance in the north has also affected Hamas’s capacity to carry out rocket attacks on Israel. These have recently subsided. Many launchers that were aimed at Tel Aviv or Jerusalem were in the north, says Höfner. In the days before the ceasefire, Hamas mainly fired rockets from the south. However, this poses a greater risk that missiles will land on your own territory.