A day of European exploits for OL in Porto (0-1) and defeat for PSG in Madrid (3-1), a press release took a back seat on March 9 on planet football. And yet, the joint announcement of the intentions to withdraw the shares of Pathé and IDG Capital, holders of 19.36% and 19.85% of the capital of OL Groupe, is a major event in the life of the Lyon club.
While Olympique Lyonnais, dropped in Ligue 1 (10th) after its fiasco against Stade Rennais (2-4), wants to pursue its dream of an epic in the Europa League, this Thursday (9 p.m.) in the round of 16 second leg against Porto, 20 minutes deciphers with Jean-Pascal Gayant, sports economist, the issues surrounding this opening of shareholding.
The departure of the historic Pathé, a shock?
For any Lyon supporter who enjoyed seven consecutive Ligue 1 titles in the 2000s, seeing Pathé leave the adventure necessarily means something. When the French audiovisual group announced in February 1999, via its CEO Jérôme Seydoux, to inject 15.2 million euros (or rather 100 million francs), as part of a capital increase, the club changed in size .
And for good reason, Pathé’s investment was then equivalent to a Sonny Anderson, bought for €15m from Barça in the summer of 1999 and a key man in OL’s first two Ligue 1 titles. group twenty-three years later? “Pathé is a historic partner of OL but his departure is not necessarily a disruption,” said Jean-Pascal Gayant. He was no longer an essential player in the club. »
Why a lease of only six years for the Chinese group IDG?
Do Lyon supporters know of the existence of Jianguang Li and Hugo Shong? These two Chinese leaders have nevertheless held almost 20% of the club’s capital for more than five years, with 100 million euros injected via the IDG Capital group. In August 2016, Jean-Michel Aulas announced “a decisive step in the growth of OL Groupe”, then “approached by several other Asian groups” according to his words. “This 4th phase of development, after the arrival of Pathé in the capital in 1999, the IPO in 2007, then the inauguration of the stadium and the training and training complexes in 2016 will accelerate the ambition of OL Groupe and its development strategy”, developed JMA at the time.
Why is this partnership, intended to “promote the notoriety of Olympique Lyonnais and enhance its know-how in the People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan” already coming to an end? “If IDG is leaving, it may mean that we have somewhat overestimated the prospects for the Chinese market, the possibilities of sales of OL jerseys and derivative products in China, indicates Jean-Pascal Gayant. The pandemic has also been able to dampen enthusiasm. »
Can Jean-Michel Aulas be weakened by this situation?
At first glance, with a simple addition, we see that an investor interested in buying back both the shares of Pathé and those of IDG would point to 39.21% of the capital, i.e. more than the 29.75% of Jean-Michel Aulas’ holding company Holnest. But the joint press release from Pathé and IDG, which decided to engage the investment bank Raine, clearly states that the two groups “will favor parties wishing to collaborate with the current management”. Similarly, Holnest has, according to our information, a right of first refusal on IDG shares. This means that JMA has the priority to buy back all the shares of IDG, or part of them, in order to remain majority.
“Jean-Michel Aulas is a well-informed businessman, recalls Jean-Pascal Gayant, professor of economics at the University of Le Mans. With him, you have to get into the habit of thinking one or two steps ahead. » « The sale by the current shareholders to a foreign investor is not at all in our prospects at the moment t. I am part of the governance of this project, ”hammered the Lyon boss a month ago, who, soon to be 73 years old and thirty-five years at the head of OL, does not yet see himself passing the hand.
What value does OL have today?
As usual transparent, OL quantified in a press release, in August 2016, the total amount of the investment of the IDG group at 100 million euros, for approximately 20% of the capital of OL Groupe. “On this occasion, we had credible figures on the true value of a club like OL, which would therefore be around 500 million euros, explains Jean-Pascal Gayant. It made sense then because there is a renowned training center, and OL above all owns its stadium, valued at €400 million. This is the big difference between OL and other French clubs, whose assets are almost exclusively intangible and fragile, namely its players under contract. »
The fact remains that we are heading towards a third season in a row without qualifying for the Champions League, and therefore without the overall jackpot of around 60 million euros, between the fixed participation bonus, that relating to UEFA history and the part of television rights. “This is the worrying side, confirms the sports economist. This implies that OL’s global notoriety has not progressed in recent years. But for all that, I don’t think that the club has fundamentally lost this value of 500 million euros. »
Isn’t it a hindrance to refuse a majority investor?
Even before the press release from Pathé and IDG, OL Groupe announced in February that it wanted to “bring in a certain number of complementary partners to strengthen equity”. Given the panorama of Ligue 1, where the foreign investors present are all in the majority, is it not a hindrance to seek only minority players, as was done with IDG in 2016? Jean-Pascal Gayant does not think so.
“No, it is not necessarily a central objective for funds to take control of the club. They are there with a prospect of making money over a horizon of five to fifteen years. They are not there for prestige and “soft power” as may be the case for Qatar at PSG and Saudi Arabia at Newcastle. At the moment, American funds are very attracted to investing in European professional football to diversify their portfolio. They have a lot of cash and their growing interest is, in my opinion, linked to the idea of seeing a Super League emerge sooner or later. »
In this context in transition, new players could therefore quickly express their interest to Lyon. “Seeing that a club like OL has its own stadium and a long-term project is a signal of quality,” adds the economist. This is more reassuring than many other French clubs, and this is also the case because it is the only club presenting its accounts in complete transparency, in the Anglo-Saxon style. »
What possible scenarios in the coming weeks?
According to Jean-Pascal Gayant, two hypotheses emerge concerning the current opening of the shareholding. “It can be a sale with a real call for tenders to the whole planet, in which we raise the stakes,” he explains, while favoring another configuration.
“A major foreign investor may have shown interest and discussions are already well under way between all parties. At that time, an offer could be quickly accepted by Pathé and IDG. I opt for this option because it concerns me that they want to leave OL Groupe at the same time. For the economist, such a “fresh money” scenario would offer the club “a breath of fresh air in order to build an even more competitive team for next season”. An unexpected epic on the pitch in the Europa League could have an equally beneficial effect.