What can we expect from the summit organized by Joe Biden?

About 40 heads of state, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will participate by video conference in the climate summit organized by US President Joe Biden on Thursday and Friday.

This meeting is supposed to mark the return of the United States to the front line in the fight against climate change, after the country’s exit from the Paris Agreement during Donald Trump’s tenure. But what can we really expect from this summit?

America is back

Seven months before the COP26 in Glasgow, the Biden administration has taken the lead in the global fight against global warming by organizing its own summit. “This conference is the return of the United States as an ambitious climate partner, they want to put a project on their new commitments, show that they are credible on the climate issue”, explains Carole Mathieu, responsible for European energy and climate policies at IFRI (French Institute of International Relations). Among the 40 world leaders, some of them should present new commitments in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

Starting with the United States themselves, according to Carole Mathieu: “They should make public their promise to reduce American emissions by at least 50% by 2030, compared to the level of 2005,” he says. it. “The goal is for as many countries as possible to announce an increase in their commitments to create a ripple effect. It will be a summit of announcements, not just negotiations ”, estimates François Gemenne, researcher specializing in climate geopolitics and professor at the University of Liège and at Science Po. Other countries could follow, such as Korea, Japan or Canada, and announce commitments revised upwards: “It’s already a victory for Biden’s team, it shows that diplomatic efforts have borne fruit,” said Carole Mathieu.

India, a major player for the climate

Putting an end to some suspense, China, one of the world’s two leading emitters of greenhouse gases with the United States, announced its participation at the summit, despite high tensions with Washington. Chinese President Xi Jinping is even expected to deliver an “important speech” at the summit. “We do not know if China will make any announcements, but the participation of Xi Jinping is already a great victory, as relations between the two countries are degraded”, analyzes Carole Mathieu. The two nations, who are opposed on multiple subjects, have decided to temporarily put their differences aside to collaborate on the climate. “China wants to show that it is one of the pillars of multilateralism, but it is unlikely that it will announce quantified commitments, it will be necessary to wait until cooperation is formalized a little more for that”, predicts the researcher.

If the agreement of the United States with China is considered crucial for the success of international climate efforts, India, the third carbon emitter in the world, is also expected at the turn. “India has a very special role, a large part of the fate of the climate will play out there. If the country explodes its emissions, it will destroy the efforts of other countries. The problem is that the priorities are development, the fight against poverty, issues are poorly combined with the fight against the climate ”, analyzes François Gemenne.

To help India and other developing countries, the issue of financing for countries vulnerable to climate change should be addressed. The Biden administration is also expected to discuss infrastructure funding. “Some countries, like China, finance coal-fired power plants. One of the challenges of this summit is to manage to limit this funding and promote the funding of low-carbon production tools, ”explains Carole Mathieu.

Prepare for COP26

On the side of Russia, which has also confirmed its participation, it is the unknown. “Russia has always been out of the climate negotiations. The question, with them, is more whether they will sanctify the climate issue. Will Vladimir Putin pollute the summit with other areas of tension or will he sanctify the issue of the climate issue? That’s the big question, ”asks François Gemenne. On the other hand, for the European Union, few surprises. The 27 member states will be able to do well after the adoption of an agreement in extremis, on the night of Tuesday to this Wednesday, on a net reduction of “at least 55%” of its greenhouse gas emissions. ‘by 2030 compared to 1990.

Announcements or not, the summit is above all a communication operation on the part of the United States, believes François Gemenne: “It is a way of occupying the media space on the issue of climate. The countries will reassure each other before COP26 on their commitments, show that they are in the same boat, to avoid unpleasant surprises in Glasgow in November. “For Carole Mathieu, by inviting all the major emitters, the United States” invites their partners, even almost obliges them, to implement measures to fight against global warming “. Answer Friday, at the end of the summit.