Weapons aid for Ukraine: who wants what in the tank dispute?

There is already talk of the “Panzer Summit” in Ramstein. However, it is questionable whether the meeting at the US base will result in a decision on the delivery of Leopard battle tanks to Kyiv. Who wants what – and where is the problem?

the initial situation

“If you have ‘Leopard’ tanks, then give them to us,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the German Chancellor before the Ramstein meeting via ARD interview shouted. So far, however, Olaf Scholz has been hesitant – despite all the criticism. It is unclear whether a decision will be made in Ramstein. Since the morning, representatives of the NATO countries and other countries supporting Ukraine have been discussing further military aid for the country attacked by Russia at the US base. Also present: German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

Since when has the debate about “leopards” been smoldering for Ukraine?

For almost a year. It begins on day eight of the Russian war of aggression, March 3, 2022, when the Ukrainian Embassy in Berlin sent a so-called verbal note to the Chancellery, the Foreign Office and the Defense Ministry. “In order to finally be able to effectively counteract the perfidious aggression on the part of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, our allies urgently need to take all measures to massively strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities,” it said.

Then follows a wish list with almost 30 weapon systems that would now be needed in the defense against the Russian attackers. First up: main battle tanks. At that time, the federal government had promised bazookas, “Stinger” missiles and armored vehicles. In addition, then Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht sent 23,000 protective helmets to Ukraine.

But nobody in the federal government is thinking about supplying heavy weapons. That changes radically in the months that follow. First “Gepard” anti-aircraft tanks were promised, then the “Panzerhaubitze 2000”, a modern artillery piece. Also multiple rocket launchers will eventually be delivered from Germany and an anti-aircraft system that can protect an entire city. But one weapon system is still missing today: the “Leopard 2”, one of the most powerful main battle tanks in the world.

It is questionable whether the new Defense Minister Pistorius will have a decision on “Leopards” in his luggage after Ramstein. One thing is certain: the pressure on Chancellor Scholz and his government to make a decision has grown massively in the past few days. Before the meeting, Pistorius made it clear: the question of whether German tanks will be delivered is a top priority. “This is a question that the Chancellor is discussing with the American President,” he said on Thursday evening in the ARD. But he also emphasized: “I’m pretty sure that we will get a decision on this in the next few days.”

Why does Ukraine insist on main battle tanks?

The situation at the front has been deadlocked for weeks. Despite fierce fighting, the course has hardly changed, recently the Russian troops have made small gains in territory. Tanks can help Ukraine break through enemy positions and reclaim more occupied territories. There are also fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin could launch a major offensive in the spring. Ukraine should do something to counter that.

What criteria does Scholz use to make decisions?

For the chancellor, three principles apply to arms deliveries: 1. Ukraine must be resolutely supported. 2. Germany and NATO must not be drawn into the war. 3. There must be no going it alone.

Especially on the second point, Scholz knows that a majority of the German population is behind him. Already in an early phase of the war he warned of a nuclear war. On the other hand, Putin has long seen NATO as a war party because of the arms deliveries to date. And the question arises: Do you want to be intimidated by Russian threats? The fact is that even the delivery of “Leopard” tanks would not make Germany and its allies a war party under international law.

What about the “no going it alone” argument?

This is becoming increasingly invalid. Great Britain has already announced the delivery of “Challenger 2” type main battle tanks. Poland and Finland want to send “Leopard 2” tanks to Ukraine as part of a European alliance. Other European countries such as Sweden or Spain also sympathize with it. Another ally is crucial for Scholz: the United States. Whenever it came to taking a qualitatively new step in arms deliveries, Scholz did not decide without the USA. This was the case with the multiple rocket launchers, with the Patriot air defense systems and most recently with the “Marder” infantry fighting vehicles.

Why isn’t the US supplying “Abrams” main battle tanks?

US President Joe Biden is as hesitant as Scholz on the tank issue. However, for other reasons. Although the Americans have nothing against the delivery of main battle tanks in principle, they do not consider the provision of the “Abrams” to be practical for practical reasons. The US tanks would first have to be transported across the Atlantic, maintenance is more complex and they consume too much fuel. “It just doesn’t make sense to give the Ukrainians this tool right now,” said Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh. In the past few weeks, however, the Americans have made it clear that they have no objection to the delivery of German-made “Leopard 2” tanks

According to media reports, Scholz is said to have made the delivery of “Leopard” conditional on the USA also delivering “Abrams”. However, Defense Minister Pistorius contradicted this statement: He was “not aware” of such a link. Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit also denied that there was a connection between the delivery of American Abrams main battle tanks and the delivery of German “Leopard” tanks to Ukraine. However, it remains the case that one must coordinate as closely as possible with the allies, above all the USA, about the delivery of new weapon systems.

Why does Germany play a key role in the “Leopard-2”?

They are produced in Germany. The following applies to arms exports from Germany: A transfer to third countries must be approved by the federal government. This is usually stated in the sales contract. This means that Poland and Finland would have to get the green light from Germany to deliver their “Leopard 2” tanks to Ukraine. However, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki had hinted that Poland could supply “Leopard” tanks to Ukraine without waiting for German approval.

Could Germany allow other countries to deliver and not deliver itself?

In principle yes, even if that would be difficult to convey. But it is also possible that the allies will first be allowed to deliver the “Leopard 2” tanks – perhaps already in Ramstein – and that their own delivery will only be decided later. When asked whether Germany would give the go-ahead for the tank deliveries in Ramstein, Pistorius said on Thursday in the ARD: “That will become clear in the next few hours or tomorrow morning.”

(Source: dpa, AFP)