He got very angry, a few weeks after the end of the Tokyo Olympic Games, in 2021. For Emmanuel Macron, bringing back 33 medals from Japan (worst record since 1992, in Barcelona) was insufficient. So, athletes should “do much more”, according to the President of the Republic, in Paris, during the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. The honor of the country, its influence, its “exemplarity” are at stake. Emmanuel Macron then stated the objective of seeing France in “the top 5 nations” in 2024.
To enter Tokyo, around sixty medals were needed, while the French team brought home just half. Optimistic, therefore, our president. And let’s not talk about the former Minister of Sports Laura Flessel who, in the excitement of the record 42 medals brought back from Rio in 2016, said she wanted to “double” this number for Paris 2024. Utopian, unrealistic, untenable, impossible. “France is a great sporting nation. But to think that we are going to have 90 medals in 2024… retorted Teddy Riner after the Tokyo Games. I would like to be lied to. but much more needs to be done to be able to claim this total. »
Around fifty medals according to Gracenote
Not 90 medals, then. Probably not 80, or even 70. Sixties? This is what was predicted in July the American Institute of Statistics Gracenote, which has made a specialty of projecting Olympic medals. This “statistical model based on individual and collective results from previous Olympic Games, World Championships and World Cups predicts the gold, silver and bronze medals most likely to be won by each country », praises this institute. A system that has already proven itself. In 2016, Gracenote had planned for the 42 medals of the French delegation. Same figure put forward before 2021, this time with less success.
“In Tokyo, we were not good, we missed a lot of things,” replies Fabien Canu, the director general of Insep (National Institute of Sport, Expertise and Performance) and former double champion of world of judo. Gracenote announced 42 medals, it was a bit excessive, but we still suffered a lot of failures [Riner, l’épée masculine, Vincent Luis ou le BMX par exemple]. »
For Paris 2024, Gracenote calculated, in July, a total of 63 medals, including 33 gold. It was before the summer, the heatwave, the visit of King Charles III to France, and above all the disastrous results of French athletics, basketball and rowing during the last competitions. So, the institute has revised its plans a little and now sees, in its little crystal ball, only 53 medals, including 27 in gold, for the tricolors in Paris. A little more realistic?
Of the total medals, 50 or 60, I don’t know, but the 50 medals, we have to do them, explains Fabien Canu. I think we also have to wait until the end of this calendar year, when the world championships in many disciplines will end, and we will have a clearer overview of the potential of each country. »
Fencing, judo and cycling, driving forces
To enable France to reach this place in the top 5, an objective set by all authorities, Gracenote predicts that the Tricolores will win, at least, one medal in 22 different sports in Paris, knowing that Claude Onesta, the general manager of high performance at the National Sports Agency, revealed in March to have identified “107 potential medals”. We’ll stop you right away, France will not achieve a historic heist, and there will not be more than 100 podiums at the Olympics. But, with a realistic conversion rate of 50%, we would reach around fifty charms.
“Fencing, judo and cycling are a trio of big medal providers,” says Fabien Canu. They can bring home eight medals each. Afterwards, it goes quickly. In certain sports, like wrestling, things are moving, there are young people arriving. They won’t make 50 medals, but we can have one or two [avec Koumba Larroque et Ibrahim Ghanem] in this discipline, the same in taekwondo, where we have two world champions [Althéa Laurin et Magda Wiet-Hénin]. Boxing is going very well, sailing too, like diving, trampoline with two world medals. All these sports don’t make noise, but they prepare well. There is a really positive dynamic. »
A slap and it’s gone again?
With this optimistic projection from the Director General of Insep, we reach around thirty medals. It remains to find around twenty to reach the 53 planned by Gracenote. We can, with optimism, think that team sports (basketball, handball, football, volleyball, rugby sevens) bring us at least five medals. Rowing, which has always been a big provider in the French clan, will have to recover from its last catastrophic World Championships in Belgrade, with zero points.
“Sometimes, a good slap can be beneficial,” assures Fabien Canu. It’s like Clarisse Agbégnénou, who misses her European Championships, it’s a way of having a call to order, and we sometimes need that. I also hope that this will be the case for rowing. It just needs to not cause a loss of confidence. » Another discipline in difficulty, athletics, which returned from the world championships in Hungary with only one small medal, should not cause the French counter to rise drastically.
High hopes in triathlon
So, where can we still hope to glean some trinkets? Archery (Lisa Barbelin), shooting (Jean Quiquampoix and Emmanuel Bessaguet), skateboarding (Aurélien Giraud), whitewater pool (Titouan Castryck), golf (Céline Boutier), triathlon ( Dorian Coninx, Pierre Le Corre, Léo Bergère, Cassandre Beaugrand, Emma Lombardi), in climbing (Bassa Mawem, Oriane Bertone), in horse riding, in gymnastics…
Enough to finish in the top 5 nations? Everyone hopes so, knowing that Russia, even if some of its athletes are authorized to participate under a neutral banner, will not appear in the ranking. “Fifth place, which is decided by gold medals between 18 and 20, is really playable, we have the potential for that,” is convinced Fabien Canu. Otherwise, watch out for the little slaps on the wrist from the president.