The Ukrainian services are convinced: “the terrorist attack in Moscow is a planned and deliberate provocation by the Russian special services on the orders of [Vladimir] Poutine. Its objective is to justify even harsher strikes against Ukraine and total mobilization in Russia. »
A statement that is not very credible given that the terrorist attack which left at least 133 dead on Friday evening was claimed via the official channels of the Islamic State (IS) and that there is then “no doubt about responsibility” of the terrorist group, according to Wassim Nasrspecialist in jihadist movements, researcher at the Soufan Center, journalist at France 24 and author of The Islamic State, a fait accompli (Plon).
An unspoken word that raises questions
The fact remains that neither Vladimir Putin nor the Russian intelligence services (FSB) mentioned IS in their speeches. On the other hand, they assured that “the four perpetrators” of the attack were arrested while they were “heading towards Ukraine”.
“What is disturbing in Vladimir Putin’s speech is that there is not a single mention of ISIS even though he mentions the Ukrainian trace and claims that the terrorists were arrested while they were on their way to Ukraine,” notes Isabelle Facon, research professor at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and specialist in Russian defense policies. Pointing in the direction of kyiv raises questions about the hypothetical consequences for the conflict that the carnage perpetrated against Russian civilians could have.
A windfall effect?
“The Ukrainian authorities have every reason to fear an acceleration of the offensive and a form of legitimization of an intensification of bombings on Ukrainian cities and their infrastructures,” assures Anne Le Huérou, lecturer at the Paris Nanterre University and specialist in Russia. However, the Russian army did not wait for the attack to accelerate the air attacks which notably hit essential infrastructure in Kharkiv during the night from Thursday to Friday. “This night again [entre samedi et dimanche] there was a massive attack as far as western Ukraine,” reports Anne Le Huérou.
If the Russian government steps up its rhetoric towards Ukraine, it could nevertheless use this tragedy to take advantage of a favorable situation on the ground for its offensive. “Would pointing towards Ukraine serve to justify a new mobilization to try to strike a bigger blow and take advantage of the favorable firing window which, in the Russians’ vision, currently exists on the Ukrainian front? », asks Isabelle Facon. Russian power has in fact accustomed us “to manipulating information, to manipulating events for its own benefit, which leads us to ask all these questions,” she adds.
Make diversion
This discourse which is heading in the direction of kyiv may also have a more internal cause in Russia. US intelligence had collected evidence that the Islamic State in Khorasan (IS-K), the Afghan branch of the terrorist group, had planned an attack in Moscow, according to The New York Times. A warning rejected and described as “pure blackmail” last Tuesday by the newly re-elected Russian president. The attack perpetrated could then reveal embarrassing security flaws for a regime which precisely wants to be infallible.
Another hypothesis is that the Russian authorities are thus trying to “divert attention from the image of a power which has neglected American warnings or which has not worked sufficiently against the terrorist threat”, underlines Isabelle Facon. It could also be a way of “clearing oneself and limiting the idea of a security failure of the current Russian regime even if all the countries which have been subjected to this threat know that absolute protection does not exist”, she continues. .
However, the terrorist threat remains difficult to prevent, whether in Russia or elsewhere. The United States in 2001, France in 2015, Belgium in 2016, the United Kingdom in 2017… ISIS terrorists have managed to slip through the cracks of many countries with efficient intelligence services . And despite a territorial victory five years ago over ISIS, the danger it represents remains very real.