War against Ukraine: dare more diplomacy – but how?

More than half of the population supports peace talks to end the Ukraine war. But how is that supposed to work without rewarding Russian President Putin with concessions for his war of aggression?

From today’s perspective, peace in Ukraine sounds like a very distant dream. Because there is not the slightest indication that the man who could bring about this state of affairs has an interest in peace: Vladimir Putin has so far not moved a millimeter from his war goals, which is why, from the point of view of political expert Gustav Gressel – as of today – no chance of negotiations. “Not at all at the moment. Putin is playing for victory,” says Gressel from the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations in an interview with the ARD Capital Studio.

And indeed, Putin’s goal of “denazification” of Ukraine is little more than a cipher for a puppet government acceptable to Russia. And “demilitarization” would mean a defenseless Ukraine that would be at the mercy of Putin’s war of annihilation. “The Ukrainians aren’t stupid either and they know what the consequences are,” says Gressel.

“What is this peace?”

In parts of the German public, however, the desire for peace is so great that politicians are accused of not relying enough on diplomacy – to the point of ideas that Ukraine should please refrain from territories stolen by Russia, so that this war stops.

“I would like to say clearly to all those who are now saying: ‘The guns only have to be silent, because then we will have peace’: What kind of peace is it when you have to live under Russian occupation? When you have worries every day that one is murdered in cold blood, raped or abducted as a child,” said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in February to the signers of the so-called “Manifesto for Peace” by Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer.

Others have criticized the initiative for calling for a halt to arms deliveries making peace a distant prospect, because Putin could feel emboldened and, with military victory in sight, would certainly not be willing to negotiate.

The talk continues

The accusation that the West and Moscow no longer talk at all is not entirely true: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russia’s Sergey Lavrov spoke to each other at the G20 meeting in India in early March. After a drone crashed over the Black Sea, the defense ministers of both countries, Lloyd Austin and Sergei Shoigu, spoke on the phone. And the Chancellor also speaks – albeit rarely – with Russia’s President Putin.

Of course, in such conversations, every word of the other party is examined as if under a microscope, and it is explored whether there is even a rudimentary willingness to negotiate. So far, apparently without any discernible success.

SPD member of the Bundestag Ralf Stegner complains that the debate about ending the war focuses too much on military means: “I think there must also be initiatives to ensure that this war doesn’t last forever,” demanded the SPD left at Anne Will in the ARD and suggested talking to China, which undoubtedly has an influence on Putin.

peace at the negotiating table

Hardly any serious observer denies that this war must be ended at the negotiating table – the only question is: when? How? And under what conditions?

Towards the end of last year, a story in the “Washington Post” made people sit up and take notice: According to this, the government of US President Joe Biden is said to have unofficially urged Ukraine to signal readiness for negotiations. Also because a persistent refusal could scare off parts of the global south in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Rumors were already circulating that the US’ aim was to supply Ukraine with weapons to once again enable it to launch an offensive and liberate more areas in order to put Kiev in a better position for negotiations – and then at some point Ukraine too encourage such conversations. There is no proof of this.

Force Putin to the negotiating table

But even if that were the case, there would still be a long way to go, and the catalog of unanswered questions would be long. Starting with who is giving Ukraine what security guarantees, so that sooner or later it will not be attacked again – like after 2014. “The lesson on the Ukrainian side from the past Minsk ceasefires is that these were just preparations for another war.” , political expert Gressel points out.

The head of the Ukraine special staff in the Federal Ministry of Defence, Christian Freuding, said in an interview with the ARD Capital Studio the fear that Putin sees his war as a long-term project – and counts on the West’s increasing exhaustion in supporting Ukraine.

Seen in this way, there is no alternative to the arms deliveries and the constant signals to Moscow that it will not cave in, because only the realization that there is no longer any military progress for him could force Putin to the negotiating table. “Only pressure, only pushing Putin back will result in him being interested in negotiations at all,” says Frankfurt politics professor Nicole Deitelhoff. So far, however, Putin has not shown any signs of this – and therefore hardly any prospects that the dream of peace in Ukraine could soon come true.