From our correspondent in the United States,
America votes in four days. Chamber, Senate, Governors, Secretaries of State… Hundreds of elections will reshuffle the cards during the November 8 midterms. And indirectly influence the future of Joe Biden and Donald Trump in view of the 2024 presidential election. “MAGA” wave or Democratic surprise, find the point of 20 minutes on a poll more than ever under high tension.
Info of the week: Nancy Pelosi’s husband’s attacker wanted to take the Speaker hostage
The violent attack on Nancy Pelosi’s husband dominated the news earlier this week. The suspect, David DePape, a former naturist activist who fell into far-right conspiracy, came armed with a hammer and in soft handcuffs. During his interrogation, he indicated that he intended to take Nancy Pelosi hostage, in order to interrogate her to confess the Democratic “lies”. He planned to “break her kneecaps” so that she would end up in a wheelchair, in order to send a message to elected officials.
If the boss of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniels, denounced the attack, Donald Trump and most conservative figures have remained silent. Or helped spread outlandish conspiracy theories denied by the police: no, the suspect was not Paul Pelosi’s lover, no, they didn’t know each other, and yes, DePape did break in. Capitol police said they had access to CCTV cameras at the couple’s residence, but no officers were in front of the monitors at the time of the attack, as the leader of the Democrats was in Washington. Operated on for a fractured skull, Paul Pelosi was released from hospital on Thursday.
Phrase of the week: “Candidates who refuse to commit to accepting the results risk leading America into chaos”, warns Joe Biden
The American president delivered a new plea for democracy on Thursday, two months after his speech in Philadelphia. He attacked the approximately 300 Republican candidates – more than half – who continue to question the results of the 2020 presidential election or refuse to commit to respecting the verdict of the ballot boxes on November 8. One of the most extreme is Mark Finchem, a member of the Oath Keepers militia, who could become Arizona’s next secretary of state, in charge of organizing and verifying the 2024 presidential election.
Controversy of the Week: Armed Citizen Observers in Arizona
Armed observers, others in camouflage. In Arizona, the Clean Election USA group, which claims 1,500 volunteers, made a name for itself by monitoring the mailboxes that allow voters to drop off their ballot in advance. The Department of Justice denounced an attempt at “intimidation”, and a federal judge imposed restrictions on these citizen observers. Who do not have the right to carry a weapon within 80 meters of a “ballot box”, to speak to nearby voters, to film them or to take their picture.
Clean Election USA is inspired by the conspiratorial documentary 2000 Slippers by Dinesh D’Souza, that these boxes were stuffed with fraudulent ballots in 2020, costing Donald Trump the presidency. Claims described as “bullshit” by the then Minister of Justice, Bill Barr.
The figure of the week: 47.1-46.6%, Georgia could decide everything in December in the Senate
For the senator seat in Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker and incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock are neck and neck, at 47.1% against 46.6% of the voting intentions, according to the RealClearPolitics average. If neither reaches 50%, with a libertarian as referee, a second round, on December 6, could topple the Senate as in January 2021.
The momentum: Republican advantage, the Senate remains uncertain
In this home stretch, the Republicans continue to lead the race, boosted by inflation and the unpopularity of Joe Biden. Their victory in the House is almost beyond doubt, with a range of between 225 and 253 seats (majority at 218), according to the projection. from the FiveThirtyEight website.
The Senate, on the other hand, remains uncertain. Republicans, riding high in several close polls, could secure a one-seat majority if they win two out of three polls in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Even more if they create surprise in the States which remain within the margin of error (Arizona, New Hampshire) and avoid disappointments where they are favorites (Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina). Be careful though: in 2020, the polls had underestimated the performance of the Republicans by around five points. We could therefore witness a red wave if this is repeated. Or to a Democratic surprise if it’s wrong the other way, like in 1998 or 2012.