It’s not just Americans who are looking with horror at the political carnage in the USA these days. After the fall of Kevin McCarthy, the race to succeed him as chamber speaker begins. The next hammer bearer will probably have little love for aid to Ukraine.
After the historic defeat of Republican Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, initiated by a handful of ultra-right mutineers, the bitter race for his successor has begun. One thing is already certain: the next Speaker of the House of Representatives, the new (theoretically) third most powerful man in US politics, will once again be a hostage to the ultra-right, a chamber king by hardliners.
The term “compromise” has rarely appeared in the dictionary of right wing players. Anger, that has so far been the default setting of the new right-wing Trumpists. Anger at everything that has to do with the Biden government – and therefore also and above all at the billions in aid for Ukraine.
The USA is by far the largest donor in the fight against the Russian invaders – and should remain so as planned. Now the man who wields the gavel in Washington in the future could decide the fate of Ukraine.
Time is running out
Even McCarthy, who was all too willing to compromise from a hardliner’s point of view, had already made the aid stop a condition for an interim solution – even though he himself was supposedly in favor of continuing the payments. In the end, it doesn’t matter whether he wanted to counteract his disempowerment by curtsying to the right, or whether he was acting out of conviction. In any case, the 45-day bridging budget does not provide for any new money for Ukraine.
US House of Representatives
“The Hateful Eight”: These eight MPs voted against Kevin McCarthy
Congress has until November 17th to finally agree on a new annual budget, otherwise there is a risk of a shutdown. Yet again. Given the irreconcilability of the two camps, a month and a half was already a short time before the mutiny in the House of Representatives. After the disaster in the House of Representatives, time is no longer running out – it is running. And time is money. But before lawmakers worry about finances, Republicans must first settle their power struggle and crown a new majority leader. No speaker, no legislation. No legislation, no budget. No budget, no money for Ukraine. However, the all-important election is not scheduled until next Wednesday – which doesn’t mean that white smoke will rise over Capitol Hill on the same day. During the embarrassing election marathon in January, McCarthy needed 15 attempts. By then it might be too late. And even if the successor is clarified in time, the new McCarthy has the power to deny the House a vote on new Ukraine aid.
Kevin McCarthy 2.0: even more right-wing, even weaker?
There is no question: McCarthy was a perfectly formed opportunist who always steered his flag toward the wind. But the office of speaker requires a minimum willingness to compromise, as he quickly realized. McCarthy’s opportunism sometimes mutated into the pragmatism needed to keep the Ukrainian artillery firing.
Those days are probably over. Whoever inherits him will no longer underestimate the influence of the nationalists. McCarthy had already had to make massive concessions to even get his hands on the speaker’s gavel. This ultimately proved to be his downfall. In order to pacify the different currents within the party and avoid another palace revolt, his successor will have to perform a daring balancing act between the hostile camps. Because the once proud Grand Old Party is deeply divided. While the moderate conservatives, together with the Democrats, recently waved through the next chunk of millions for Ukraine, the right wing remains stubborn, aggressive and hungry for power.
Even if in the end “only” eight renegades led by thrashing rhetorician Matt Gaetz were responsible for McCarthy’s fall, they still have dozens of siblings in spirit. The new right is now too big to ignore. And realpolitik is, at the extreme edge, a mythical creature. As of now, three men can hope for the position: Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise and Kevin Hern. Even if the intensity is decreasing, all three are already vying for the favor of the outsiders who have joined. If you want to become a speaker, you have to be able to kneel. In fact, the majority of the more promising candidates are declared opponents of aid to Ukraine.
Fear of political hostage-taking
The right wing may be loud. But the stubbornness of the arch-conservatives in no way reflects the non-partisan will of the people. One this week from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs published survey According to reports, support for aid to Ukraine has actually fallen among Republican voters. Despite this, around half of conservative Americans continue to support military supplies.
The USA has pumped almost $70 billion into Ukraine since the start of the war. Experts estimate that Ukraine wastes around $2.5 billion in equipment, maintenance and ammunition every month. It’s still an estimated two months before the flow of money from Washington will dry up.
What is particularly important is the constant supply of ammunition, says security expert Carlo Masala in the news podcast “Apocalypse and Filter Coffee”. If it runs out, “then the war will be over,” he is certain. The Republicans only see the hole that the assistance would tear in the state coffers. But if Russia wins the war, it would be really expensive, says Masala. Compared to the political and economic consequences, the $48 billion in military aid that the USA has provided so far is “ridiculous”. The Europeans would then have to fill this financing gap – only Brussels has to fight with its own hardliners.
Meanwhile, Kiev is outwardly trying to maintain collective calm. It is said that an exchange is still taking place. Only a few isolated voices give an impression of the fingernail-biting in the back rooms of Kiev. Ukrainians have become “hostages to their domestic politics,” Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zheleznyak, the first deputy chairman of the parliament’s finance committee, told Politico after Ukraine was left out of the interim budget. “We are freaking out. This is a catastrophe for us,” Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a high-ranking Ukrainian MEP, told the US magazine.
Democrats share responsibility
No matter how you twist it, the right-wing mudslinging comes at the worst possible time. The Democrats under Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries knew this when 208 of them voted for McCarthy’s removal. The reflex to harm one’s political opponent and trip up a proven Trumpist is understandable. But in a situation in which lives are lost every day, realpolitik might have been the wiser course of action.
Now the Ukrainians’ fight takes no account of Washington’s power struggles. President Joe Biden’s line also makes no compromises in this regard. He only submitted a request for $24 billion in new aid to Congress in July, which is now pending. So the Democrats may end up sharing some of the blame for the precarious outlook for the Ukrainians. One thing is clear: when Washington argues, Moscow rejoices.
Sources: “Politico“; “Axios”; “Guardian“; “Reuters”; CNN; Podcast”Apocalypse and filter coffee”