In the power struggle between US Republicans in the House of Representatives, a decision is expected to be made on Tuesday (local time). House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he would put a motion for his own removal to a vote later in the day. The “motion to vacate” was submitted by his ultra-conservative party colleague Matt Gaetz out of anger over the compromise with the Democrats in the US budget dispute. The outcome of the vote was uncertain.
If McCarthy is removed, the search for a new leader is likely to bring work in the House of Representatives to a standstill. This would also affect the already difficult and time-critical negotiations with the Senate on a final budget. The arch-conservatives’ revolt against McCarthy is a direct result of the budget dispute. This brought the US federal institutions to the brink of a budget freeze last week.
Despite warnings from a group of about two dozen hardliners, McCarthy had enlisted the help of Democrats to avert the shutdown through interim funding by November 17th. McCarthy said he was willing to risk his office for the benefit of U.S. citizens. He was also combative on Monday evening. “Do it,” he wrote to Gaetz on Network X.
In the almost 250-year history of the USA, the chairman of the House of Representatives has never been voted out of office by his own party. It is unclear what McCarthy’s chances are. The Speaker of the House of Representatives needs the support of Democrats for the vote. Otherwise he would probably lose his job. Republicans have a slim majority of 221 votes to 212 in the chamber. So five Republican dissidents would be enough to overthrow him. However, his opponent Gaetz probably has around 20 no votes behind him.
It is also unknown whether Democrats will help McCarthy. Many of them are upset because he allowed Democratic President Joe Biden to be impeached. But this was considered to have no chance. Moderate Republicans showed little interest in a leadership change. Conservative MPs like Marjorie Taylor Greene also pointed out that there was no alternative candidate. “It just doesn’t make sense,” she told Reuters.
The fact that McCarthy was only confirmed in office in January after 15 rounds of voting could also have a deterrent effect. A new, similarly lengthy procedure could be difficult to convey to citizens given the budget dispute and the current comparatively high inflation. In addition, the quarrels cast their shadow over the upcoming elections in November 2024. Then not only a new president will be elected, but also a third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives.