US presidential election
What data tells us about a duel between Biden and Trump
By Nils Kreimeier
February 4, 2024, 3:04 p.m
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The US election in the fall could see revenge between the Republican Trump and the Democratic incumbent Biden. Since surveys show that economic issues play a major role for US voters, it is worth taking a look at sentiment and economic factors. Who is her favorite?
Donald Trump’s official candidacy for the presidential election has not yet been determined, but after the first primaries, in which only one internal party competitor, Nikki Haley, remained, it is becoming increasingly clear: There is likely to be a new showdown between Republican Trump and the Democratic incumbent Joe Biden is coming.
Of course, there are still uncertainties, particularly arising from the numerous legal proceedings against Trump – as well as the attempt to exclude him from the ballot in some states. It also makes the election campaign much more difficult for the Republican because he loses lawsuits – such as the one following a defamation lawsuit, as a result of which he now has to pay a fine of over 83 million US dollars.
As in every US election campaign, surprises can still be expected. But voters and the markets are gradually preparing for the duel between Biden and Trump. Which means that looking at the numbers for this competition is becoming increasingly important: survey results, sentiment and economic factors. The business magazine “Capital” has collected and classified important data.
The economic data published in the first few weeks of the year is extremely good in many respects and is significantly better than in Europe. The US economy grew strongly at the end of 2023, making a so-called soft landing increasingly likely.
After a long period of rather poor sentiment among American consumers, this growth is now evidently making itself felt in general mood. Americans’ confidence in the economic situation – as regularly surveyed by the University of Michigan – made a significant jump at the beginning of the year and reached its highest level since the summer of 2021. Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman – who leans towards the Democrats – saw this There has also been an end to the “perceived recession” that the economist has been campaigning against for months.
Perceived economic situation
In fact, polls blame President Biden for the poor economic situation in the USA. Although the Democrats have launched a spending program of historic size with the Inflation Reduction Act, the incumbent can hardly benefit from the previous successes of this package, which is primarily focused on green energies. But it is economic issues that play the greatest role for voters, as the opinion research institute Pew Research finds in its regular surveys.
Inflation under control
What is particularly interesting is that the USA has managed to get consumer prices back under control despite strong economic data. Even if the rise in energy costs has not hit the USA as hard as Germany, the almost two years after the Russian attack on Ukraine have not been an easy time on the other side of the Atlantic in this regard. With corresponding consequences for goods prices. The American central bank responded by raising interest rates and in this way managed to tame the problem. The economists at Berenberg Bank are somewhat surprised by this development. “The US economy continues to defy textbook logic,” write experts Holger Schmieding and Kallum Pickering in a recent analysis. The triad of high interest rates, falling inflation and still strong economic growth is a remarkable signal.
The price decline even applies to an area in which Americans are traditionally particularly sensitive – fuel. Donald Trump, who usually gets away with a lot from both voters and the media, recently received a lot of ridicule when he claimed in a speech that the price of a gallon of gasoline (3.8 liters) at the gas station was as high as eight dollars. Although fuel costs more than it did during Trump’s term in office, the price has recently fallen significantly, according to data from the US Energy Agency.
So all of this points to a positive background for the incumbent, but in addition to economic factors, other issues also play a role, including illegal immigration. Things are not looking good for the Biden government in this area, as an increasing number of attempts at unauthorized entry have been registered in recent months, especially at the southern border of the USA. It’s an issue that Republicans routinely exploit in relevant House committees. A cross-party deal for the border would be all the more important for Biden, which the Republicans have so far refused to do for electoral reasons.
Unpopular president
Although the economy is improving, numbers like the border, extreme polarization and Donald Trump’s strong presence in the public debate put Biden in a bad position in the election year. The Democrat is an unpopular incumbent. The values have even worsened continuously over the course of his term in office. This may be due to the fact that many Democratic voters also consider the president to be too old to last a second term. This is bad news for Democrats at the start of the election year.
The big question now is: What does this starting position mean for a duel with Donald Trump? So far, the ex-president seems to have benefited from bad news from his trials because it catapults him into the public eye. However, there may be a moment when this turns into the opposite, namely when independent voters begin to seriously consider the next decision. It is conceivable that Trump’s legal problems will at some point become so severe that they will weigh on his approval ratings. So far, however, this is hardly noticeable, which is a bad signal for Biden: Although the objective data speaks for him, he is falling behind in the poll race with Donald Trump.
This article first appeared at Capital.de