It is, to put it mildly, not exactly a reassuring sign when the world power USA launches military attacks on targets in three countries in the Middle East within 24 hours. And at the same time the war in Gaza continues. How are the conflicts in the region related? What else is to be expected? Important questions and answers:
Who attacked whom and where and why?
A shadow war has been ongoing in the region since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th. Especially in Syria and Iraq, where both the USA and Iran are militarily active. The United States has stationed 900 soldiers in Syria, still to fight the “Islamic State” (IS) – but also to prevent the Assad regime and thus Iran from taking over the Kurdish areas. In neighboring Iraq there are still around 2,500 US soldiers, also deployed against IS. And also there to limit Iran’s great influence.
Iran, in turn, operates in both countries with the foreign units of its Revolutionary Guards, and Tehran also finances and controls local militias. Since the beginning of the Gaza war, the Iraqi militias have particularly distinguished themselves with attacks on US facilities; they have given themselves the new name “Islamic Resistance”. To date, the US has counted more than 160 attacks. This includes the drone attack on a US post on the Syrian-Jordanian border at the end of January, in which two female and one male soldiers were killed. The “Islamic Resistance” took responsibility for this. US President Joe Biden had announced retaliatory strikes, which he then carried out on Friday.
How severe are the US strikes and how great is the damage to Tehran?
The US response only began on Friday, said Biden. But it was already violent: The President ordered what were probably the heaviest air strikes by the USA in the Middle East since the Iraq War in 2003. Biden, unsurprisingly, decided against strikes on Iranian territory. The US President knows about the danger of war in the region. He apparently wants to demonstrate the power of the American air force to Tehran without risking a conflagration. Iran, in turn, had a few days to prepare for the attacks and was able to withdraw personnel from the region – also to prevent an escalation.
The targets of the US attacks were precisely chosen; they primarily affected the logistics of the Iranians and their allies. Their route for transporting weapons leads through the Iraqi province of Anbar and southeastern Syria, a desert area full of posts of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and militias loyal to Iran. Such posts, including weapons depots, have been destroyed by the United States. However, it did not hit any of the Guard’s more prominent targets that would have forced Iran to respond harshly. It is these kinds of goals that show the regime in Tehran how well the US government knows about its activities.
How do Iran and the militias allied with Tehran react? How high is the risk of war?
So far, the Iranian regime has only responded rhetorically. Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian accused the United States of “militarism” and spoke of an “adventurous mistake” by the USA. What is striking is that the mullahs apparently do not see the American operations as an attack against themselves. Otherwise your language would be much sharper. Tehran has repeatedly distanced itself from its proxy militias, saying they make their own decisions. An important militia, the Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah, even announced a few days ago that it wanted to pause its attacks on US facilities in the region.
The Iranian regime desperately wants to protect the alliance it has built up over the years in the Middle East, the “Axis of Resistance.” That’s why it doesn’t want any escalation in the Middle East and wants to keep the shadow war within limits. Iran will still respond to the US air strikes, but this does not have to happen immediately. And not directly – that’s also why Tehran has its useful militias, which are happy to take on the fight against the USA. So that the mullahs themselves can stay out of it. As if they had nothing to do with any of this.
What role does Israel play in the conflict?
Israel and the Palestinian problem are the linchpin of the Middle East conflict. The dynamic triggered by the attack by the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas and the counterattack by the Israeli army threatens to become a real regional conflict with every further air strike by American and British forces. Israel is likely to see advantages in the Americans’ growing involvement – as long as the USA is on board, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can play his own games under the protection of the superpower.
President Biden, on the other hand, actually wants the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to end quickly – with a clear perspective of statehood for the Palestinians. But as long as the US army has to respond militarily to attacks by Iranian auxiliary troops in Iraq, Syria or Yemen, Netanyahu can wage war and try to destroy or at least cripple Hamas.
What do the new US attacks on Houthi positions in Yemen have to do with this?
The US Air Force attacked the Houthis on Sunday night with good reason. This Iranian vassal force plays a special role. Their missile attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea threaten global transport routes – and not just the USA. As a military organization, the Yemeni Islamists, who are also heavily armed by Iran, are difficult to hit from the air. Biden, on the other hand, is unlikely to risk a ground war in Yemen: the inaccessible country is considered “Arab Afghanistan,” a region where invaders can only get a bloody nose. Even if the Houthis are also waging the conflict on their own behalf and are working on their profile as a regional Islamist power with their pro-Palestinian rocket attacks, for Iran the wild ragtag group from the Red Sea is a wild card.
Will Iraq finally demand the withdrawal of US troops?
The US troops in Iraq are not only used to fight IS. They also train part of the Iraqi army, which has been equipped with American weapons and equipment since the fall of dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003. At the same time, the presence of the troops guarantees the White House that the Islamic Republic of Iran must at least curb its influence in the predominantly Shiite neighboring country of Iraq. Which is why Tehran would rather see the US soldiers withdraw today rather than tomorrow, but the US does not want to give up this strategic leverage. The Iraqi government, in turn, is trying to regain the sovereignty it lost due to the long US occupation and Tehran’s constant interference. The US attacks provide an excuse to demand the controlled withdrawal of the last American soldiers without simultaneously becoming more dependent on Tehran.
Are Iran and the USA talking to each other?
There is no official contact; the last time we spoke was last year through the Emirate of Qatar. At that time it was about an Iranian-American prisoner exchange, which finally took place in September. Some observers were already hoping for a new nuclear agreement with Tehran. Since October 7th, however, there have been no signs of detente and the Iranian regime has shown little interest in a new agreement. On the contrary, it has ramped up uranium enrichment again. Soon it could be capable of producing nuclear weapons. In any case, it plays with the threat. Qatar is currently involved in negotiations again regarding the release of the Israeli hostages who are still in Gaza – and a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel.
How can the situation be defused?
Above all, the US air strikes on Friday are a warning to Tehran – in the language that the regime there understands. President Biden shows he is willing to protect American troops in the Middle East. And not to withdraw them, as Iran and its allies in Syria and Iraq would like to do. In the logic of deterrence, Biden has shown military strength without unnecessarily provoking Tehran. The mullahs can handle that. Both sides now know from each other that they are not looking for escalation. Now, however, they also have to ensure that nothing happens in the region that leaves them with no choice. This could not only mean further deadly attacks on US troops, but also an outbreak of war between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah. The shadow war between the USA and Iran cannot be separated from the Middle East conflict – it will not end as long as there is fighting in the Gaza Strip.