Several scenarios were on the table after the rejection motion adopted Monday in the Assembly. And it was ultimately the most likely one that was chosen to continue to bring the immigration bill to life: the Joint Commission (CMP).
The government will convene it “as quickly as possible” to find “a compromise between the majority and the oppositions” on the text, its spokesperson, Olivier Véran, announced this Tuesday after the Council of Ministers. But what is this CMP? We’ll explain it to you.
A probable toughened version of the bill
Going to a joint committee means trying to negotiate an agreement. In this CMP, we will find seven senators and seven deputies, in proportion to the political balance of each chamber. In what looks like a black box and where the government is theoretically not present, we negotiate step by step on each article to try to find a wording that receives the consent of a majority. If there is agreement, the CMP is said to be “conclusive”. The resulting text must then be adopted as such by both chambers, the Senate and the Assembly.
In this CMP, the most numerous are the LRs. With the Macronists, they have a majority. And if the Macronists want an agreement, this simplifies the negotiation. But this CMP will work from the version of the immigration bill that arrives from the Senate, the toughest. And given the balance of forces in this CMP, the version that could emerge will necessarily be harsher, too, than the one resulting from the commission in the Assembly at the beginning of December.
The risk then, in the event of a conclusive CMP, will again be on the side of the Assembly. In the event of a vote, there could be a fracturing of the presidential majority, with a left wing abandoning the government, judging the bill too right-wing.
A miracle to reach an agreement?
Many do not believe this hypothesis and think that the left wing will lie down: “A snake, with a little salt and a little parsley, goes very well. “, we say in particular on the left. But the risk is still very high.
Others believe that a conclusive CMP would be a miracle because the Senate text includes 145 articles. “That means 145 arm wrestles. […] An insurmountable disagreement on a single article and the CMP is inconclusive, therefore yet another failure. […] Are you going there? I think carefully before trying…” François Malaussena, a socialist parliamentary collaborator, notably judged on Twitter.