General Yuri Sodol has been fighting the Russian army since 2014, when Moscow began its war in eastern Ukraine. Most recently, the “Hero of Ukraine” commanded the naval stormtroopers, then the 53-year-old was promoted to commander of the United Armed Forces. Sodol’s words carried particular weight when he explained why the Ukrainian parliament should decide to tighten the mobilization law.
Ukraine is under pressure: “The enemy outnumbers us seven to ten times, and we lack personnel,” said Sodol. “In some departments we have two men, in others three or four men, where there should be eight to ten.” The result: a brigade that was supposed to defend a 15-kilometer section of the front against the Russian attackers could actually only hold a maximum of five kilometers. “We are maintaining our defense with the last of our strength,” said General Sodol in parliament.
In the end, the general got what he asked for: 283 parliamentarians (out of the necessary 226 votes) voted on April 11th for a stricter mobilization law that is intended to bring more men to the front. The law comes into force a month after President Volodymyr Zelensky signed it. Of course, this does not solve the enormous personnel problems, nor does the dramatic shortage of ammunition and anti-aircraft ammunition.
Of the 800,000 active military personnel, less than 300,000 have so far been at the front
According to the London Institute for Strategic Studies, Ukraine has 800,000 active military personnel, but less than 300,000 were active on the front lines, according to a presidential aide. Most of them have been fighting since the Russian invasion began. According to President Zelenskiy, around 31,000 Ukrainians will have died by February 2024, but evidence suggests that there may actually be over 100,000 dead and up to several hundred thousand injured.
Because of the pressing shortage of personnel, which senior officers of the SZ described as early as fall 2023, the then commander-in-chief, Valeriy Saluschniy, demanded that half a million men be called up: After all, newly draftees usually first have to be trained for an operation for months. President Zelenskiy, however, shied away from this.
In December 2023, Zelenskiy said he saw no need to conscript half a million men so far – a statement recently reiterated by the new military commander-in-chief, General Oleksandr Syrsky. Of course, neither Zelenskiy nor his commanders said what number they consider necessary. The mobilization law that has now been passed is also silent on this. Only measures such as a renewed registration requirement for men capable of military service or sanction options such as the revocation of a driver’s license in the event of withdrawal from military service were decided.
Russia’s army is no longer the chaotic force that attacked two years ago
Soldiers exhausted from years of fighting had hoped to be replaced by newly drafted soldiers. But at the end of December 2023, General Saluschniy dampened hopes of this in view of the critical situation at the front: there were simply no new soldiers for extensive rotations.
His successor Syrsky also bowed to this insight: on his initiative, shortly before the adoption of the new mobilization law, a passage was deleted that stated that soldiers could leave the front line after 36 months of service. “The escalation of the Russian escalation continues, the offensive is taking place literally on the entire front. It is impossible to weaken the defense forces at this moment,” Defense Ministry spokesman Dmyrto Lasutin said on television in justification.
It’s not just Ukrainians who see it that way. Christopher Cavoli, the commanding U.S. general in Europe, told the U.S. House of Representatives on April 10 that the Russian army fighting in Ukraine was no longer “anything like the chaotic force that attacked Ukraine two years ago.” In addition, Russia is filling its ranks much faster than expected. Last year alone, Russia increased its front-line troops from 360,000 to 470,000 men. England’s military intelligence service added on Wednesdaythe Kremlin wants to call up 400,000 soldiers this year.
Zelenskiy long shied away from drafting young Ukrainians
With this in mind, one might expect Ukraine to draft men with all available resources and in all age groups. But that is not the case so far. In other countries, young men aged 18 and over are sent to the front. However, after the wars of the 20th century and the long economic depression and subsequent decline in the birth rate, Ukraine has very few young men. According to the United Nations There are twice as many men in their 40s as in their 20s in Ukraine, according to the New York Times.
Zelenskiy long shied away from drafting young Ukrainians. In May 2023, the parliament decided to lower the age for front-line Ukrainians from 27 to 25 years. Zelensky refused to sign the relevant law for almost a year – and only did so at the beginning of April. The decision could potentially bring 150,000 young Ukrainians to the front – but only after registration, examination in the military commissions and months of military training.
In fact, Ukrainian soldiers serving at the front are now mostly over 40 years old. But even in this age group, Zelenskiy and the military have so far refrained from taking what would actually be obvious measures. In Ukraine, military personnel, police officers, prosecutors and other uniformed personnel can sometimes retire at the age of 40 – a holdover from Soviet times. According to parliamentarian Galina Tretyakova, who chairs the Committee on Social Policy and Veterans, there are in Ukraine over 200,000 such military pensioners of military age between 40 and 60 years old.
The opposition criticizes that the government lacks the political will and a clear strategy
“These men are trained to use weapons and should actually go to the front first,” he said SZ the parliamentarian Yulia Klymenko from the liberal Holos faction, which is part of the opposition. But in fact, just 5,410 military pensioners have been drafted so far, according to one Information from the General Staff.
“The problem is not a stricter mobilization law,” says Klymenko. “The problem is the lack of political will and a clear strategy. How can you justify students and other young Ukrainians that they should go to the front when hundreds of thousands of suitable military pensioners are not being mobilized?”