Does the situation escalate?
Is it all just “hysteria”? This is how various countries are currently reacting to the Ukraine crisis
It looks menacing, but thankfully it’s just an exercise. On Saturday, Ukrainian police forces, national guards, border guards and rescue services conducted extensive training. In the southern region of the country, processes were to be tested that would become necessary after a possible provocation. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, around 1,300 personnel, armored vehicles and helicopters were involved. The President himself also got an idea of the emergency services. The exercise took place in and around the town of Kalanchak, about 20 km from the administrative border with Crimea. In the scenario, the situation of mass unrest was simulated and, among other things, an administration building had to be brought back under control. The training took place against the background of an overall increasingly tense security situation. Because in the past few weeks, Russia has concentrated more than 100,000 soldiers on the border with eastern Ukraine, among other things. The West fears an invasion of Ukraine. However, the government in Moscow denies this. On the other hand, it demands clear security guarantees from the West, such as a commitment not to accept Ukraine into NATO on a permanent basis.
The crisis in Ukraine is coming to a head. The West expects a Russian invasion there in the coming days. Putin denies that. And Poland is preparing for Ukrainian refugees.
Before Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) travels to Kiev and Moscow, fears of a military escalation in the Ukraine conflict are growing. After the USA and other Western countries, Germany also asked its citizens to leave Ukraine at the weekend. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to defuse the conflict are stagnating. While the United States again warned Russia of the consequences of an invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin accused the West of “hysteria.”
Scholz is expected to meet with Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday. Before that, he travels to Kiev on Monday. During his talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s demands for arms deliveries, which the federal government has so far rejected, are likely to be discussed.
Scholz is unlikely to make any commitments to deliver weapons or military material in Kiev either, government circles in Berlin said on Sunday. A list of requirements from the Ukrainian side will be further examined. An offer for further economic support is therefore possible during the visit.
Between “other scenarios” and “hysteria”
A massive Russian troop deployment on the Ukrainian border and Russian military maneuvers in Belarus and in the Black Sea are currently fueling fears of an impending Russian invasion of Ukraine. Moscow denies any plans to attack and says it feels threatened by NATO.
US President Joe Biden again warned Putin on Saturday of rapid and serious consequences for Russia in the event of an invasion, according to the White House. Biden emphasized in the call that the United States “is still ready to engage through diplomatic channels, but we are also prepared for other scenarios”.
“The hysteria has reached its peak,” Putin’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov told journalists after the phone call. At the same time, he emphasized that “the Presidents have agreed to continue contacts at all levels”.
Russian troops on the border with Ukraine: These satellite photos make the West nervous
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US warns of invasion and Israel recalls citizens
The US government had previously warned of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine before the coming weekend. British Defense Minister Ben Wallace warned in an interview with the Sunday Times that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen “at any time”. He announced on Sunday that he would return to London early from a holiday out of concern “because of the deteriorating situation in Ukraine”.
The US media spoke of a possible large-scale Russian attack shortly after Scholz’s visit to Moscow. “We continue to see very worrying signs of a Russian escalation, including the mobilization of more troops on the borders with Ukraine,” US Secretary of State Blinken said on Saturday. The White House had previously urged US citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, and other Western countries followed suit.
The Federal Foreign Office also issued a travel warning on Saturday, calling on Germans to leave Ukraine immediately. A military escalation in the Ukraine conflict “cannot be ruled out”. Most recently, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called on Israeli citizens to leave the country as soon as possible. One hopes for an end to the tensions without escalation, but does not know how the situation will develop, said Bennett on Sunday. That is why it was ensured over the weekend that the number of flights from Ukraine to Israel was increased significantly. According to the State Department, around 15,000 Israelis live in Ukraine. Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz instructed the army to prepare for the possibility of an evacuation of Israelis from Ukraine, according to his office on Sunday.
Poland is preparing to take in refugees
Putin dismissed reports of an imminent attack as “provocative speculation”. In a telephone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron, he accused the West of supplying Ukraine with “modern weapons” and thus creating “conditions for possible aggressive actions by the Ukrainian security forces in Donbass”. Pro-Russian separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine’s Donbass region since 2014.
The Kremlin announced on Saturday a partial withdrawal of its diplomatic staff from Ukraine. The reason is “possible provocations by the Kiev regime or other countries”.
After US government warnings of a possible impending Russian attack, Poland is gearing up to take in refugees from Ukraine. In view of the situation in the neighboring country, preparations are being made for various scenarios, Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski wrote on Twitter on Sunday. “This also includes the preparations of the heads of the regional administrations with a view to a possible influx of refugees from Ukraine who could seek protection because of a possible conflict in our country.”
Ukraine: airspace remains open
Ukrainian citizens are currently allowed to enter Poland and the Schengen area for tourism purposes without a visa for up to 90 days. There are also many Ukrainian workers in Poland. According to the Polish Immigration Office, more than 300,000 people from Ukraine had residence permits in December, most of them limited to three years. The number of Ukrainians who work in the neighboring country without a permit is likely to be many times higher.
Despite growing international warnings of a military escalation in the Ukraine conflict, the government in Kiev has announced that it intends to keep Ukrainian airspace open. “The airspace over Ukraine remains open and the state is working to eliminate risks for airlines,” the Ministry of Infrastructure said after a crisis meeting on Sunday.
Kyiv fears that Ukraine could be cut off from international air travel because of the current conflict with Russia. On Saturday, the Dutch airline KLM announced the temporary suspension of its Ukraine flights. On Sunday it became known that a plane belonging to the Ukrainian low-cost airline Skyup was banned from flying in Ukraine at the last minute by its Irish leasing company. The plane coming from Portugal with the destination Kiev had to make an unscheduled landing in Moldova.
Aviation experts expect that other western airlines will soon also discontinue their connections to Ukraine – also because the insurance costs for such flights are likely to continue to rise in view of the crisis. Added to this is the memory of the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014, which killed 298 people.