Türkiye
Turkish opposition on the rise after election success
Supporters of the center-left CHP party celebrate in front of the town hall in the Turkish capital Ankara. photo
© Ali Unal/AP/dpa
They were elections at the local level, but an important test of sentiment for Erdogan: The opposition can surprisingly cheer – and many ask what this does to the president’s strength.
The defeat of the Islamic-conservative ruling party AKP in the local elections has changed the political landscape in the Türkiye shaken up. While the opposition sees itself on the rise, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan must come to terms with the debacle, as he himself admitted after the election.
Erdogan’s AKP achieved a historically poor result in the vote. For the first time since its founding in 2002, it became only the second strongest party in the country in an election.
According to unofficial results, the largest opposition party, the CHP, won 35 of the 81 mayoral positions nationwide, achieving its greatest success in decades. She also defended her posts in the important metropolis of Istanbul and the capital Ankara – overall she won in the country’s five largest cities. It also expanded its influence in Anatolia – actually the heartland of the AKP.
Around 61 million people, including around a million first-time voters, were called on yesterday, Sunday, to elect mayors, local councilors and other local politicians. Opposition supporters celebrated their success until early Monday morning. In both Istanbul and Ankara, people flocked to the streets with Turkish flags. Motorcades drove through the city honking.
A reminder for Erdogan in the face of high inflation
The result of the election came as a surprise. During the parliamentary and presidential elections less than a year ago, it seemed as if neither the massive inflation nor the discontent after the devastating earthquakes in the southeast could affect Erdogan. Although he had to face a runoff election, he won comfortably in the end.
Political observers such as analyst Berk Esen assume that many AKP supporters did not vote due to the poor economic situation or voted for smaller conservative parties such as the Islamist Yeni Refah. This competed with the AKP and was able to conquer two provinces from it.
Inflation of around 67 percent is particularly difficult for low earners and pensioners. Food and rental prices in particular are becoming increasingly expensive. Ideological commitment is traditionally not as strong in local elections, which may have made it easier for conservative voters to give Erdogan a lesson. This is also indicated by the lower voter turnout. According to the state news agency, at a good 78 percent, this was around six percentage points lower than in previous local elections.
Türkiye facing major political upheaval?
It remains to be seen whether Erdogan is permanently weakened. Governing large cities can be an opportunity for the opposition to raise its own profile – especially in a country where the media is largely state-controlled. Experience has shown that the government in Ankara often makes it difficult for opposition-run cities to initiate significant changes or implement large projects.
Erdogan himself has repeatedly proven himself to be adaptable in the past. The plan to change the constitution seems to be off the table for now. Analysts had assumed that a strong performance by the AKP could encourage the president to seek constitutional change to secure another term in office.
Analyst Esen also points out that the opposition’s success does not mean that Turkey is now more democratic. In his view, Turkey under Erdogan is rather a competitive authoritarian regime in which elections are neither free nor fair. At the same time, he wrote on the X platform (formerly Twitter): “If the CHP seizes the opportunity, there will be a major political break.”
Istanbul mayor gains profile
Whether the CHP can use the momentum for success at the national level also depends in part on its hope – Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. He was re-elected in the metropolis of 16 million, thereby strengthening his position as a possible future presidential candidate. Istanbul, the country’s economic and cultural heart, is seen as a springboard for higher ambitions. Erdogan’s political rise also began in Istanbul.
However, Imamoglu still faces a ban on politics as a result of proceedings against him that many observers criticize as politically motivated. A decision is expected in the coming weeks.
According to preliminary results, Imamoglu won by around eleven percent and celebrated in front of cheering supporters on Monday night. The results suggest that the 53-year-old once again received support from Kurdish voters, even though the pro-Kurdish DEM fielded its own candidate. The mayor has also proven that he does not need the six-party alliance with which the opposition ran in the presidential elections. The national conservative Iyi Party, which was seen as a competitor to Imamoglu’s CHP, sank into insignificance.