Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won the early general election in Canada, but missed his goal of an absolute majority with his liberal party. According to forecasts by the public broadcaster CBC, the ruling party won around 156 seats in the vote on Monday, leaving the Conservatives of opponent Erin O’Toole behind with around 122 seats. This means that the Liberals can only win one seat in this election. But that’s enough to allow Trudeau a third term.
The result gives him a clear mandate to form a government, said Trudeau in his victory speech on Tuesday night. “You are sending us back to work with a clear mission to guide Canada through this pandemic and into better days ahead.” The conservative opposition leader Erin O’Toole has already admitted defeat. He called Trudeau to congratulate him, he said in his home constituency outside of Toronto.
The polls have recently been tighter than the Liberals would have liked
The 49-year-old Trudeau had called the early vote a few weeks ago with the hope of an absolute majority, among other things due to the relatively successful Corona policy of his government. The polls had recently been tighter than the Liberals would have liked. The top candidates of the other parties and many Canadians had accused them of reaching for an absolute majority despite a fourth wave of the pandemic and a relatively stable minority government – and thus wasting time in the fight against Covid-19 and potentially endangering the health of voters.
In his speech, Trudeau responded to his skeptics: “I heard you. You no longer want us to talk about politics or elections. You want us to concentrate on work.” The prime minister named ending the pandemic, the fight against the climate crisis and better childcare services as priorities. “Our team, our government is ready,” said Trudeau. Meanwhile, the conservative top candidate O’Toole sharply criticized Trudeau in his speech. The prime minister had hoped for a quick grip on power. “The Canadians have rejected him with another minority government at a cost of $ 600 million and deeper divisions in our great country.” The rifts in society should not be deepened for selfish reasons. He accused Trudeau of seeking an early election again within 18 months.
In general, the electoral system in Canada tends to benefit Trudeau’s Liberals. The mandates in the 338 electoral districts are distributed according to the principle of absolute majority. Only a few dozen contested districts are decisive, especially in the suburbs of the cities of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver – somewhat comparable to the “swing states” in the USA. Trudeau has ruled the North American country with almost 38 million residents since 2015 – from 2019 onwards he led the country with only a minority of the seats in parliament in the capital Ottawa.
According to experts, Trudeau has a credibility problem despite some successes
Traditionally there are no coalitions in Canada, but either absolute majorities or minority governments with an average half-life of two years. The last federal vote in autumn 2019 brought the Liberals 157 seats, while the Conservatives won 121. Historically, the Liberals have been the most frequent governments in politically moderate Canada. In addition to the climate crisis, domestic political issues such as the rising cost of living and health care dominated this election campaign.
According to experts and pollsters, despite some political successes, Trudeau has developed a credibility problem among parts of the Canadian population. This has to do with big, but not always kept, promises and several scandals. Trudeau’s star appeal, which won the 2015 election against the conservative Stephen Harper by pledging a new, transparent and modern style of leadership, has worn off after six years as prime minister.