interview
Transatlantic coordinator Link expects that the USA will probably not leave NATO if Trump is re-elected. But behind him there is a broad intellectual base that would advance his “America First” policy.
tagesschau.de: Donald Trump does not want to support defaulting NATO states. He even recommends that Russia implement any attack plans. Is that the line of his Republican party?
Michael Georg Link: One thing must always be made very clear: What Trump says is erratic, unsteady, unreliable. Things could be different again tomorrow. I don’t think he’ll leave NATO either. That wouldn’t be typical of Trump. He unsettles everyone with his unpredictability.
But we have to prepare for a “worst case scenario” in which Trump actually does what he says now, namely no longer honoring certain commitments.
At the same time, the election in November could also turn out differently. We cannot underestimate President Joe Biden. He is a strong president and has already won against Trump once. We are also preparing for his re-election.
To person
Michael Link has been “coordinator for transatlantic inter-societal, cultural and information policy cooperation” since March 2022. The FDP member of the Bundestag was already Minister of State in the Foreign Office from 2012 to 2013, responsible for relations with the USA and Canada. He followed the 2020 US elections for the OSCE as chief observer on site. From 2014 to 2017 he was director of the OSCE sub-organization ODIHR, which is responsible for election observation and human rights.
tagesschau.de: Is the majority of Republicans following Trump’s course?
Link: The Republican mainstream already wants stability. But you also have to recognize that this mainstream is currently not very politically assertive. Because whenever this mainstream tries to make a deal, as it is now doing on immigration in the US Congress, Trump scatters it like a wolf scatters a flock of sheep.
Unfortunately, this is an inventory analysis that makes you think a lot. That’s why you have to try to talk to as many Republicans as possible and always find common interests – in the military, in NATO, on security, on trade issues, investments, jobs and these things.
The fact that we have now achieved the NATO two percent target is, first of all, right for ourselves. But it is also important in discussions with the Republicans. Of course, that is no guarantee that they will prevail against Trump afterwards.
Broad intellectual base
tagesschau.de: There are always reports that people come together in an institute who are already preparing the transition and would be able to implement his policies much more quickly if Trump were re-elected.
Link: There are several institutes: the America First Policy Institute, the Center for Renewing America and also the Heritage Foundation. They write papers.
There is a large, intellectually capable base there, a large number of thought leaders in the MAGA area (“Make America Great Again”). They are no longer neoconservatives. They are more like how Trump himself sometimes appears: they represent clear guidelines for give and take. A few names also emerge.
However, this is still far from being consistent; there are some differences between the various institutes. That’s why we have to analyze, make contacts, prepare for everything. That’s exactly what the federal government has been doing for months.
tagesschau.de: Do you also meet Republicans who are working to move away from Trump?
Link: If you talk to Republicans at the governor’s level or at the senatorial level and especially at the level of representatives in the state legislatures, you will hear that, at least behind closed doors, people are definitely thinking about the time after Trump. It’s just that such conversations usually end with “Please don’t quote me.”
Desire for younger candidates
tagesschau.de: What does that mean for the nomination of candidates?
Link: We are in the complex situation that as long as Trump is running, Biden is running. As long as Biden is running, Trump is running. As in a Greek tragedy, their fates are strangely intertwined. This blocks the ability to renew on both sides.
The lesson must be learned from this that democracy must always work on its own ability to renew itself. The USA has many options in this regard, as they have often shown in the past. But at least for now it has one It’s kind of a dead end, where the vast majority of the population says we’d like someone younger and yet no younger person is running.
restrictions in the right to vote
tagesschau.de: A few years ago you headed the OSCE election observation organization ODIHR. Then you are certainly following the developments in voting rights in the USA. How would you assess that?
Link: The tightening of voting rights through the reduction of early voting in Texas, for example, are restrictions that must be taken very seriously. The right to vote is not formally restricted. But the fact that the election is on a working day and Texas has now massively reduced the possibility of voting on Sundays or even the possibility of early voting makes it very difficult for workers from lower-income areas who generally do not get vacation for voting much harder to tune.
This is a step that needs to be criticized because exercising fundamental rights should always be easy. This is something that needs to be watched very closely. As usual, the OSCE wants to send election observers to the US elections again and I think that is extremely important.
The interview was conducted by Silvia Stöber, tagesschau.de