Lifting restrictions too quickly in Brazil could lead to an even more deadly third wave – Bruna Prado / AP / SIPA
The country of South America is experiencing an endless drama. With one of the worst death rates in the world, at more than 220 per 100,000 inhabitants, Brazil is expected to reach 500,000 deaths from Covid-19 by the end of the month. Due to the slowness of vaccination, the early loosening of restrictions and the rampant circulation of variants, some epidemiologists fear a third wave even more deadly than the first two in this country of 212 million inhabitants.
And unlike in European countries, there is no real lull between the waves: since mid-May, the death curve has stabilized on a very high plateau, with an average of around 2,000 daily deaths. The contaminations curve has been steadily rising in recent weeks, a direct consequence of the relaxation of restrictive measures affecting the population.
“An unprecedented health hecatomb has ended up becoming commonplace”
This increase in the number of infections while mortality remains high risks causing “a worsening of the health crisis”, warns Fiocruz, a benchmark public health institute, in its latest epidemiological bulletin. At the time of the peak of the second wave, in March and especially in early April, when Brazil had two days of more than 4,000 deaths, most mayors and state governors imposed a curfew and the closure of non-commercial businesses. essential. But these restrictions were lifted after a few weeks, far too early, according to specialists.
“In Brazil, an unprecedented health disaster has become commonplace. Most people live as if there is no pandemic, ”says José David Urbáez, of the Center for Infectious Disease in Brasilia. Another source of concern: the Delta variant, which appeared in India, with the first cases confirmed in recent weeks in Brazil in people who have stayed in the Asian country.
Only 10.8% of the population immune
The third wave is likely to hit the country head-on at the time of the Copa America, a football tournament that far-right President Jair Bolsonaro has decided to welcome with open arms after Argentina and Colombia withdrew. . The competition is due to start on Sunday, but rumors of a boycott of players have cast doubt and the mayor of Rio de Janeiro has threatened to ban matches in his city if the health situation worsens.
And it is not about to improve, in a country where only 10.8% of the population has been immunized with two doses of the vaccine. In a presidential address last Wednesday, Jair Bolsonaro promised that “all Brazilians” would be vaccinated by the end of the year, a goal difficult to achieve, according to specialists.
Record high unemployment
In this televised speech heckled by deafening pot concerts in the country’s major cities, the president said that Brazil was “one of the countries that experienced the strongest economic growth in the first quarter (+ 1.2%)” because he had “not made anyone stay at home”. Despite these encouraging economic data, unemployment reached a record level in the first quarter (+ 14.7%) and the health situation continues to deteriorate.
“If the vaccination fails to offset the negative impact of the relaxation of restrictions, the third wave could be strong,” said Mauro Sanchez, epidemiologist at the University of Brasilia (UNB).
Mass vaccination
The benefits of mass vaccination were demonstrated during an experiment conducted by the Butantan Institute in Serrana, a city of 45,000 inhabitants of the State of Sao Paulo (south-east) where 95% of adults have been immunized. . The death toll from Covid-19 has fallen by 95%, and hospitalizations by 86%.
“The pandemic has been controlled in Serrana and we can do the same throughout Brazil,” said the governor of Sao Paulo Joao Doria, fierce opponent of President Bolsonaro. The head of state had notably criticized the agreement signed by Joao Doria with the Chinese laboratory Sinovac for the local production of the Coronavac vaccine, which represents nearly 60% of the doses injected to date in Brazil.